Key investment points
Baijiu week tracking: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : according to the new wine industry, the export price of Moutai 53 degrees flying to Moutai rose to 150 US dollars / bottle, after the same price with China’s factory price. The guiding price of the year of the tiger lunar new year wine remains unchanged at 2499. At present, the distribution channel has not started to pay for the lunar new year wine, but the direct stores have been opened for sale. At present, the wholesale price has exceeded 5500 yuan. It is expected that the wholesale price will cool down after the distribution channel starts to supply in the future; The guide price of Maotai treasures is set at 4599 yuan, and the high-end product line is further enriched; Maotai’s 15-year guidance price increased by 1000 yuan to 5999 yuan, and the wholesale price increased by 400 yuan to 7280 yuan around the week. In addition, the price increase of sauce wine was further deduced, and the guiding price of Jinsha summary was increased by 100 yuan to 1399 yuan. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : the payment has been completed by 40%, and the delivery has been completed for 1-2 months. The bid price fell by 5 yuan to about 965. Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : the price increases from 10 yuan to 920 yuan around the week. At present, some dealers have completed payment, the inventory of best-selling products is very low, and other inventories are about one month. Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) : at present, the payment and delivery in the new fiscal year have just begun. We expect the revenue side to increase by about 20% in the province and about 30% outside the province in 2022.
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : the dealer conference of Maotai flavor series liquor was held, and the target of the 14th five year plan was doubled. On January 5, a dealer fellowship was held for Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) Maotai flavor series liquor in 2021. 1) In terms of business performance: Chairman Ding Xiongjun pointed out that Maotai flavor wine company completed the annual sales volume of 30000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%; Realized revenue 118.5% The total profit is expected to be 5.185 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%. The net profit margin of Maotai flavor liquor is about 44%. Secretary Ding gave the goal that Maotai flavor liquor series should strive to double its revenue to more than 24 billion yuan at the end of the 14th five year plan, accounting for more than 10% of the group, and become the main growth pole of the group’s development. According to the production and operation announcement of Maotai in 2021, the annual revenue of the company’s series of liquor was 12.6 billion yuan. It can be calculated that the compound growth rate of income in the next four years should reach 17.5%. 2) Product structure adjustment: in 2021, Maotai Prince liquor, Han sauce and Guizhou Daqu will achieve sales of 5.4 billion yuan, 1.7 billion yuan and 1.4 billion yuan respectively. Secretary Ding pointed out that all products should be competitive in different price bands. Among the thousand yuan products, Maotai 1935 will become a pillar product; 500 to 1000 yuan, Han sauce should become a pillar product; Below 500 yuan, Maotai Prince wine should become a pillar product. Due to the limited short-term capacity improvement space of Maotai flavor series liquor, it is expected that the target of the 14th five year plan will be mainly contributed by the increase of ton price. The existing product structure (Prince liquor, Yingbin liquor, Guizhou Daqu and Han sauce) will be greatly adjusted to focus on high positioning single products in various brands. At the same time, the future strategic large single product status of Maotai 1935 will be further confirmed. In terms of brand building, we should gradually make each brand have a unique story and connotation. 3) “Stock production” and “Wanjia sharing”: the difference between the two lies in the different production areas and production cycles (Maotai liquor for 5 years and Maotai flavor series liquor for 3 years). However, the biggest competitive advantage of the series of liquor is that it is produced by Maotai Co., Ltd. together with Maotai liquor, which ensures the high level of production technology, blending and evaluation technology and quality management, and has strong cost-effective advantages. 4) The marketing plan and assessment will be more refined: the expenses and assessment of display, tasting, banquet, entrance and entering the enterprise will be more refined and scientific, so as to enhance the cultivation of consumers and the creation of atmosphere. In terms of regional development, we should solve the problem of unbalanced regional development from point to area. This is the first Maotai series liquor dealer conference after Secretary Ding took office, which shows a deep understanding of the competitive advantages of series liquor. The objectives are clear and practical, and the ideas of reform and development are also very clear. We believe that the series of liquor will become an important growth pole to further enhance the dominance of Maotai in various price bands. At the same time, we can clearly see that the overall marketing ability of Maotai has been significantly upgraded, and the strategy is more aggressive. It is expected to accelerate its development during the 14th five year plan period.
Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) : the industry’s dynamic sales in December were slightly affected by the warm winter, and the company’s Q4 operation was stable as a whole. According to channel research, the temperature in winter 2021 is high. Affected by this, the demand for downstream hotpot, similar hotpot and other business forms is relatively flat in the peak season, and the dynamic sales of frozen products industry is affected to a certain extent. Anyi is still the most brilliant and stable in the industry, and most of the early price increase products have been successfully transmitted to the terminal. We expect that 21q4 can still achieve relatively steady growth compared with the high base in 2020. Meanwhile, the frozen Kwai quick dishes are smoothly paved through the ice chest mode. We expect that the 2021 ice chest development plan can be completed ahead of schedule to further consolidate the channel for prefabricated dishes.
Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) : raise the price to hedge the cost pressure and maintain a relatively stable profit level. The company announced this week that the ex factory prices of some main frozen baked foods and baked raw materials will be adjusted by 3% – 8%. The adjusted prices will be implemented according to the price adjustment notice of each product from January 4, 2022. The price increase products include frozen baking products and some baking raw material products. According to channel feedback, some frozen baking products are still out of stock in the peak season, so we think the price increase can be conducted relatively smoothly; In the category of baking raw materials, peers Shanghai Hi-Road Food Technology Co.Ltd(300915) , Panda Dairy Corporation(300898) have raised the price of cream products. At the same time, downstream milk tea enterprises have also announced the price increase. We believe that this is the basis for the industry to open the price rise tide and conduct it smoothly. On the whole, we believe that the price increase of legao can effectively guide the downstream, cover the cost pressure of raw materials and maintain the relatively normal profitability of the company.
Chenguang Biotech Group Co.Ltd(300138) : 21q4 fine supplement of pepper, the price of chili red and lutein increased, and the performance was good. We expect the annual performance to increase by about 30%. At the same time, the investment of 20h2 R & D expenses + lutein price fell, and the expected profit of Q4 under the year-on-year normal base performed better. The company’s sales of Capsicum essence and lutein improved month on month in Q4 after purchasing and replenishing inventory of raw materials. Looking forward to 2022, among the three main varieties, the price of chili red is low in 2021 due to more supply, and 21q4 has begun to rise gradually. It is expected to return to the relatively normal level in previous years in 2022. The planting area of lutein raw material marigold in China is difficult to expand, the demand (feed grade application + food grade application in the field of health products) increases steadily, the price rises slightly, and the gross profit is expected to continue to increase. The price of Capsicum essence remains high due to the epidemic in India, the origin of Capsicum raw materials. It is expected that the epidemic will recover relatively in 2022, and the price of Capsicum essence will fall back to the normal level. At the same time, the price will be supplemented by quantity to maintain the stability of gross profit. At the same time, the company’s Zambia base is expected to start local production and sales of pepper products in 2022, contributing a new increment of revenue and profit.
The milk tea industry starts the price rise tide, and the price rise of upstream enterprises may be transmitted smoothly. Xiangpiaopiao Food Co.Ltd(603711) issued a price increase announcement to adjust the price of the company’s solid brewing milk tea (including classic series and good material series). The price increase range of main products is 2% – 8%. The new price will be implemented according to the price adjustment notice of each product from February 1, 2022. The new tea chain chain tea Yat Yue is also on the public account. The official account is expected to raise the price of milk tea products because of the rising cost. Some products will be 1 yuan in January 7th. We believe that this will help upstream cream and condensed milk production enterprises such as Shanghai Hi-Road Food Technology Co.Ltd(300915) (the announcement increases the price of some products by 5% – 8%), Panda Dairy Corporation(300898) (the announcement increases the price of some products by 3-10%) and LIGO (the announcement increases the price of some products by 3-8%) to transmit cost pressure.
Recommended combination in January: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) . The combination logic has not been changed, so we continue to maintain the combination recommended last month. In January 2022, the recommended portfolio and its rise and fall were Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) (- 9.19%), Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (- 6.77%), Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) (- 5.69%), Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (- 5.27%) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (- 2.25%) respectively, and the portfolio yield was – 5.83%. Over the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.65%, 4.18% higher than the Shanghai Composite Index.
Investment strategy: the layout is at the right time. Our main recommendation focuses on the following directions: (1) strong HENGQIANG’s steady income companies: recommend Maotai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , China Resources beer, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Chenguang Biotech Group Co.Ltd(300138) and other sub industry leaders; (2) high growth companies with fast expansion in the industry: recommend prefabricated vegetables, quick frozen industry, sub high end Baijiu, cheese industry, Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.Ltd(603020) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , etc. (3) Companies with cycle reversal and dilemma reversal: epidemic cycle recovery, recommended Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) , Haidilao, leading oil enterprises, leading meat products, etc. it is recommended to pay attention to Yihai International; It is expected to accelerate after adjustment. It is recommended to pay attention to Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) and Zhou Heiya. For detailed recommendation logic, see strategy for 2022: price recovery is expected to accelerate the release of performance.
Risk tips: risk of global and Chinese epidemic spread, risk of large outflow of foreign capital, sauce and wine inventory and policy.
