Summary of this issue:
Crude oil: prices rose across the board. Early part of the week: U.S. oil demand returned to the pre pandemic state. The impact of the epidemic on fuel demand was less than previous market expectations, boosting oil prices. Investors waited and waited for the upcoming OPEC meeting. The market was worried about supply expectations, and crude oil rose first and then fell. Late in the week: OPEC is optimistic about the economic outlook. In 2022, OPEC and its production reduction allies will continue to be cautious about increasing production, and the concern of market oversupply has eased. At the same time, the U.S. crude oil inventory has decreased for the sixth consecutive week, and the crude oil price has continued to rise. At present, the weekly average price of Brent crude oil is 80.21 (+ 1.49) USD / barrel, and the weekly average price of WTI crude oil is 77.35 (+ 1.43) USD / barrel.
PX: the market focus is rising. The cost side support is strong, and the supply-demand relationship of PX market is also supported. On the supply side, there was no significant change in market supply during the week. At the end of December, a 1 million T / a PX unit in South China entered maintenance, and the overall market supply declined slightly. On the demand side, the downstream PTA’s demand for raw materials remained on the high side. A set of 4.5 million T / a PTA unit in Fujian began a 20 day overhaul in early January. Except for the Fujian unit, the remaining large units maintained normal operation. At present, the weekly average price of pxcfr China’s main port is 913.61 (+ 29.40) US dollars / ton, the price difference between PX and crude oil is 329.94 (+ 20.42) US dollars / ton, the weekly average price difference between PX and naphtha is 141.77 (+ 38.35) US dollars / ton, and the operating rate is 70.20% (+ 0.50PCT).
PTA: the market rose sharply. The cost side support is strong, and PTA spot circulation is tight. On the supply side, a 1.1 million T / a PTA plant in South China was restarted at the end of December, a 700000 T / a PTA plant in East China was restarted at the beginning of January, a 4.5 million T / a PTA plant in Fujian began a 20 day maintenance in early January, and a 1.2 million T / a PTA plant in East China was briefly stopped from January 4 to 5. On the demand side, polyester construction in the lower reaches declined in a narrow range during the week. The terminal market is still dominated by reserve inventory in advance, and there have been shutdown and holidays in some areas. At present, the average weekly price of PTA spot is 5052.86 (+ 203.57) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is 55.86 (+ 31.59) yuan / ton, the operating rate is 70.80% (- 2.30pct), and the social circulation inventory of PTA is 2265000 (+ 8900) tons.
MEG: market prices rose broadly. Crude oil prices rose in an all-round way, naphtha international prices fell slightly, power coal prices rose slightly, and raw material support was strong. On the supply side, the overall performance was good. A set of 800000 T / a refining and chemical plant in East China was shut down for maintenance for a week on January 4, and the commissioning of 400000 T / a new plant in Guanghui, Xinjiang was temporarily stopped. China’s output this week decreased slightly compared with last week. On the demand side, some polyester enterprises in the downstream were restarted, the load of polyester factories increased slightly, the pressure of high inventory of factories still existed, the overall performance of production and marketing was general, the start-up of terminal weaving industry was reduced, and the demand side performance was general. At present, the weekly average price of MEG spot is 5013.57 (+ 193.57) yuan / ton, the inventory in East China tank farm is 697000 (+ 33000) tons, and the operating rate is 62.20% (- 1.80pct).
Polyester filament: rising trend. At the beginning of the week: boosted by the cost side, many filament enterprises raised their quotations, the focus of market transactions moved upward, the downstream replenished goods at the beginning of the year, and the production and marketing data were in large volume. Mid week: the cost side support was strong, the cost pressure was prominent, filament enterprises successively raised their quotations, downstream and terminal factories entered holidays, and the production and sales fell sharply. On the supply side, Jiangsu Lixin plant is overhauled, involving a filament production capacity of 80000 tons / year. At present, affected by the demand side, polyester filament enterprises are more stable and wait-and-see. Filament inventory is mostly concentrated in large factories, with less pressure on small factories. Supported by strong costs, there is no promotion plan for the time being, and the market is relatively warm. At present, the weekly average price of polyester filament is poy7375 71 (+ 135.71) yuan / ton, fdy7592 86 (+ 168.57) yuan / ton and dty8900 00 (+ 200.00) yuan / ton, the industry average single ton profit is POY + 116.58 (- 69.80) yuan / ton, fdy-4.79 (- 48.00) yuan / ton and DTY + 265.44 (- 27.14) yuan / ton respectively, and the inventory days of polyester filament enterprises are poy16.00 yuan / ton respectively 50 (- 1.30) days, fdy19 50 (- 2.00) days and dty21 00 (- 2.50) days, the operating rate is 80.30% (-0.10pct).
Weaving: continued weak performance. The downstream weaving enterprises will gradually enter the holiday mode. However, with the recent strong drive of the cost side, the downstream is guided by the rising sentiment of buying and purchases in advance. It is planned to produce the precursor after the Spring Festival. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream demand follow-up is limited and continues to realize the weakness. At present, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 50.99% (-0.90pct), and the grey fabric inventory is 33.80 (+ 0.30) days.
Polyester staple fiber: the market is stable and upward. Crude oil prices continued to rise, and the cost side continued to be positive. On the supply side, Jiangsu Desai staple fiber plant was shut down for maintenance this week, Zhejiang times hollow staple fiber plant was shut down for maintenance, Yizheng Chemical fiber restarted some staple fiber plants, and the staple fiber output in the week decreased slightly compared with last week. On the demand side, the shipment of polyester staple fiber this week is general. The operation of downstream pure polyester enterprises has declined, and the inventory is relatively sufficient. The superimposed terminal demand continues to be weak. Yarn enterprises replenish moderately and just need to buy. At present, the weekly average price of polyester staple fiber is 7089.52 (+ 92.38) yuan / ton, the industry average profit per ton is 92.56 (- 98.57) yuan / ton, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber enterprises are -1.70 (+ 0.60) days, and the operating rate is 80.20% (- 1.10pct).
Polyester bottle chip: light downstream demand. On the supply side, at present, the supply of some manufacturers of polyester bottle chips is still tight, and their raw material inventory is only about 1-2 days. On the demand side, at present, there is no replenishment demand for large downstream soft drink manufacturers. Due to insufficient orders, the start-up of the sheet industry is low. In addition, some small and medium-sized enterprises still have low-cost inventory, so the overall willingness to replenish is not strong. Near the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream replenishment quantity is limited, and the demand is more light. At present, the average spot price of PET bottles and chips is 7914.29 (+ 135.71) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is + 772.71 (- 69.80) yuan / ton, and the operating rate is 77.10% (+ 1.00pct).
Xinda refining and chemical index: from September 4, 2017 to January 7, 2022, Xinda refining and chemical index increased by 173.95%, the oil processing industry index decreased by – 10.51%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 30.84%.
Relevant listed companies: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) (601233. SH), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) (600346. SH), Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) (000703. SZ), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) (002493. SZ), Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) (603225. SH) and Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) (000301. SZ), etc.
Risk factors: (1) the large-scale refining unit is put into operation, and the production schedule is lower than expected. (2) The macro-economic growth rate declined seriously, resulting in a serious depression on the demand side of polyester. (3) Geopolitics and El Ni ñ o phenomenon greatly interfere with oil prices. (4) The production capacity of px-pta-pet industrial chain cannot be expected to change significantly.
