Key investment points
Investment strategy: the coal price rose slightly this week, the Indonesian export ban has a certain boost, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has improved. At present, many coal mines have completed the maintenance at the end of the year and began to return to work and production. However, the rectification activities in some areas are still continuing, superimposed with the environmental protection and production restriction policy and the approaching winter Olympic Games, and the overall supply side is tight. It is reported that as many as 25 coal enterprises in East Kalimantan Province, the main production area of Indonesia, were allowed to continue exporting coal in early January. The sustainability of the impact of the Indonesian incident on coal prices still needs to pay attention to the follow-up measures of the Indonesian government. In the medium and long term, under the background of lack of planned investment, the constraints on the coal supply side are strong. Under the background of small annual growth in demand, coal will be a scarce resource in the next few years, and the stock capacity or high profits. The increase of the benchmark price of the annual long-term association also ensures the ability of the industry to maintain high profitability. Under the dual carbon goal, coal enterprises urgently need to transform, invest in energy Yankuang, Shenhua, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) and others mainly focus on new energy operation and hydrogen energy. The coal industry has the advantages of strong cash flow and rich land resources in new energy operation, and has the ability and willingness. The transformation of new energy direction is conducive to improving the overall sector valuation level (at present, the PE valuation is 5-6 times), and the coal assets need to be repriced, Continue to be optimistic about the investment value of the sector. Thermal coal stocks are recommended to pay attention to: Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , power investment and energy, Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) . Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are recommended to pay attention to: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) .
Summary and Prospect of thermal coal: Indonesia’s export restrictions boosted, and pit mouth prices began to rebound. This week, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal produced in QinGang Shanxi was 830 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton week on week, stopping the decline and recovering. In terms of supply, many coal mines stopped production and completed maintenance at the end of the year, resumed production, and the supply was stable; The impact of Indonesia’s export restrictions appeared, the prices of some coal mines began to rebound, and the queues of coal trucks in coal mines increased. In terms of demand, although the supply guarantee policy led to sufficient coal storage in the power plant, the export restriction event in Indonesia led to market sentiment. Traders and platform shipping could make profits, and their purchasing enthusiasm improved in the weak. Some enterprises began to replenish their stocks in stages before the Spring Festival. On the whole, Indonesia’s export restrictions have boosted the power coal market in the short term. In the follow-up, we will pay attention to the demand in the peak season and Indonesia’s arrangements.
Summary and Prospect of coking coal: supply and demand support the strong operation of the market and drive the price rise. The price of mainstream coking coal rose this week, and the price of Shanxi main coking coal depot in Jingtang Port increased by 2600 yuan / ton (including tax). In terms of supply, some coal mines have completed maintenance and resumed production after new year’s day, but the supply side is still tight due to the impact of safety and environmental protection; In terms of import, the epidemic situation in Mongolia rebounded, and the customs clearance at Ganqi Maodu port was still low. The customs clearance lasted four days this week, with an average of 87 vehicles per day (the same month on month). The tradable resources at the port were limited, the coal price rose slightly, and the Mongolian coal market operated stably, moderately and strongly. In terms of demand, the blast furnace has been intensively restored to production, the market has improved, the production willingness of coke enterprises has increased, and this year’s coal mine holiday has been ahead of schedule, and coke enterprises have actively supplemented the warehouse to support the good operation of coal prices. Overall, China’s coking coal market is improving, the supply is still tight, the procurement is active, and the coal price is stable at a high level. Follow up attention will be paid to the production restriction of the Winter Olympic Games and the change of replenishment demand.
Summary and Prospect of coke: the supply of coke enterprises is under pressure, and the resumption of production of steel plants just needs to be increased. As of January 7, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 2860 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, and the national average profit per ton of coke was about 203 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, the first round of coke price increase was fully implemented, and the increase of coke price led to the improvement of coking profit. However, affected by the environmental protection production restriction policy, the operating load of coke enterprises fluctuated, the willingness to increase production was not strong, and the supply side was tightened as a whole. In terms of demand, the downstream steel mills have gradually resumed production, the start-up has picked up, and the inventory level of some steel mills is low, and the coke just needs to pick up. On the whole, the coke supply is tight, and the start-up of the steel plant just needs to be increased, which supports the increase of coke price. In the follow-up, we will pay attention to the resumption of work and production of the steel plant and the production restriction of the Winter Olympic Games.
Power coal: the port coal price rises and the port inventory decreases. (1) As of January 7, the price of 5500 kcal Shanxi thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port was 830 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. (2) As of January 6, the price of power coal in Newcastle was US $187.48/ton, up 9.9% week on week. (3) As of January 7, the transfer in volume of Qinhuangdao port railway was 408000 tons, with a decrease of 7000 tons compared with the ring road. (4) As of January 7, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 4.49 million tons, with a decrease of 250000 tons on a weekly basis; The coal inventory in the Yangtze River Estuary was 3.41 million tons, a decrease of 16 tons on a weekly basis.
Coking coal: the price of coking coal in China has risen, and the inventory of coking plants has increased month on month. (1) As of January 7, the price increase (including tax) of Shanxi main coke coal depot in Jingtang Port was 2600 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. (2) As of January 6, the price of hard coking coal in Fengjing mine was 390.50 US dollars / ton, up 3.44% on a weekly basis. (3) As of December 31, the total inventory of coking coal of China’s independent coking plants (100) was 6.6228 million tons, an increase of 246200 tons on a weekly basis.
Coke: the price rose month on month, and the operating rate of coking plant increased. (1) As of January 7, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 2860 yuan / ton, up 560 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. (2) As of December 31, the coke oven productivity of China’s independent coking plants (100) was 62.12%, with a week on week increase of 0.42%. (3) As of December 24, the national blast furnace operating rate was 45.99%, with a decrease of 0.42% on a weekly basis. (4) As of December 31, the total coke inventory of three types of coking enterprises (production capacity 2 million tons) was 436100 tons, with a weekly increase of 56000 tons.
Review of industry highlights: (1) national development and Reform Commission: do a good job in coal production and supply in January, and strengthen resource guarantee in the main coal producing areas (2) Hebei: seriously do a good job in “double carbon” work, and strictly control the investment in capacity expansion projects in coal, electricity, steel and other industries (3) carry out carpet, net Rolling risk hazard investigation and rectification action (4) Shaanxi coal group completed the signing of medium and long-term coal contracts in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 11% (5) at least 25 coal enterprises in East Canada, Indonesia were approved to export coal in early January
Risk tip: the economic growth rate is lower than expected; Excessive policy regulation; Renewable energy substitution, etc; Coal import impact risk.
