Key investment points
Home furnishing: this round focuses on Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) with underestimated value and improved operation
Policy underpinning, data stabilization, real estate post cycle pressure weakened, and continued to be optimistic about the 22-year home valuation repair. Recently, the household sector has significantly outperformed the market, mainly due to: (1) the high-pressure time point of real estate policy has passed, and under the continuous catalysis of various positive policies, it is expected that the real estate chain will continue to usher in repair in 22 years; (2) From the real estate data in November, the completion performance was brilliant (November alone + 13.24%), while the decline in new construction, sales area and funds in place of real estate development enterprises narrowed and stabilized month on month. With the loose margin of the real estate environment, the 22-year data is expected to bottom out and pick up. We believe that the current round of valuation repair of the home furnishing sector has not ended and continues to perform for 22 years: (1) leading α The gap between competitive strength and midstream enterprises in the industry is widening, and EPS is expected to be over cashed compared with the industry; (2) The current valuation system is still low compared with that before the start of the current round of downward trend in May 21, and from the perspective of historical resumption, the sales and new construction data are strongly positively correlated with furniture PE, and the subsequent data recovery is expected to drive the valuation of the sector upward. Target recommendations: (1) continue to be optimistic about Baima Longtou Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) in the medium and long term, build a leading advantage in multiple dimensions, have strong growth certainty, and the logic of share promotion is more smooth. (2) This round of recommendations focuses on the investment opportunities of elastic targets with high growth and low value. It is most recommended to Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (PE in 22 years is 13X) and Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) (E company's high-quality operation and smooth entry into stressless Chinese market, PE in 22 years is 16x) Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) (equity incentive plan has high growth, compound 25% revenue and 30% profit target, and 22-year PE is 20x).
High quality manufacturing: select individual stocks for 22 years, and select competition channels and small leaders with competitive advantages
Line 1: profit inflection point. The expected margin of raw material & shipping is loose, and the implementation of price increase drives the recovery of profitability. It is recommended to lay out the targets with serious profit damage in 21 years and strong recovery power in 22 years in light industry high-quality manufacturing, and pay attention to Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) , Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) , Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) , Xiamen Intretech Inc(002925) .
Line 2: the downstream demand is booming, and the revenue growth momentum in 22 years is abundant. Combined with the company's valuation and growth, it is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) (22x in 22 years, growth target of 30%), Joy Kie Corporation Limited(300994) (28x in 22 years, growth target of 30% +), Hhc Changzhou Corp(301061) (18x in 22 years, growth target of 25-30%) and small and Midea's target Shandong Yuma Sun-Shading Technology Corp.Ltd(300993) (21x in 22 years, growth target of 30-35%, we will release an in-depth report this week).
Tobacco: Overseas disposable products are hot and China's leaders continue to promote the layout of new tobacco industry
All parties in the Chinese market are cautious in the short term. Disposable products in the overseas market are hot and optimistic about the 22-year high volume of SIMORE international. The recent correction of SIMORE's share price is expected to be mainly due to the shipment fluctuation during the transition period of the Chinese market, and all parties maintain caution. However, it is worth noting that the performance of disposable products in the overseas market is hot. With the large-scale production of SIMORE disposable ceramic products in 22 years, the steady progress of PMTA and the layout of new fields, the growth drive is still strong. The company recently issued an announcement granting stock options to qualified employees at an exercise price of HK $38.43 (currently HK $33.75), demonstrating development confidence. From a long-term perspective, the valuation of SIMORE international is still low. It is expected that the profit in 22 years will be 7 + billion (+ 25%), and the corresponding PE is only 24.6x. The layout is recommended.
Huabao international has successively won the bid for new projects of China tobacco, and the comprehensive integration service barrier has been built. Based on the taste gene, the company continues to be optimistic about improving customer stickiness through integrated comprehensive solutions, and looks forward to the release of increment in international layout after the production capacity of Indonesian factories is put into operation in 22 years.
Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) participate in Changyi technology and continuously improve the layout of new tobacco. Recently, the company issued a notice, through the wholly-owned subsidiary of Jin Jia Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) technology to increase Yunnan Changyi Technology Co., Ltd., further improve the HNB flavor and flavor layout. In addition, the company's main business, traditional cigarette label business, is expected to rebound, high-quality cigarette boxes continue to work, 3C packaging growth recovers, and continues to be optimistic about the company's future growth and valuation improvement.
Papermaking: accelerated concentration of special paper pattern, leading the way
The concentration of special paper pattern is accelerated, and the leading enterprises such as crane take the lead. According to the data of the papermaking association, the supply side of the special paper industry is about 7.5 million tons and the demand side is about 10 million tons (including the import demand of 2.5 million tons). The corresponding industry pattern is relatively scattered. The leading crane (1.1 million tons of capacity at the end of 21) accounts for only 15% of the supply side, and the capacity of other companies is mostly 300000-400000 tons. According to the industry expansion plan, the expansion speed of the leading enterprises is differentiated. Xianhe, huawang and Wuzhou expand faster, while the expansion of other companies is more conservative, and the industry pattern is accelerated and concentrated.
India's anti-dumping case of decorative base paper landed, which was beneficial to the increase of export share of Xiawang and other enterprises. On December 27, 2021, the Taxation Bureau of the Ministry of finance of India made a final decision on anti-dumping and imposed anti-dumping duties on the products involved for a period of five years, including US $116 / ton on Xiawang paper (Xianhe joint venture), US $110 / ton on Qifeng New Material Co.Ltd(002521) boxing Ouhua and Zibo oumu, and US $542 / ton on other manufacturers. India's decorative base paper market is relatively blank, China's export base paper has superior cost performance and more prominent performance than local products. This round of anti-dumping tax is expected to be transmitted smoothly, and there is a great possibility for customers to bear, which is actually good for Xia Wang and Qi Feng to increase their share. The post papermaking cycle focuses on growth targets, preferably Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) and Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) .
Risk tip: the trade environment continues to deteriorate, the real estate boom fluctuates, the price of raw materials rises, and the price of sea freight rises
