The revolution in the energy industry has started, and policies are escorted. The top-level design of China’s “1 + n” policy system of carbon peak, carbon neutralization has been successively introduced, with clear direction and objectives. The proportion of China’s non fossil energy consumption will reach 20% in 2025, about 25% in 2030 and more than 80% in 2060. In 2025, the total installed capacity of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation will reach more than 1.2 billion kw.
Starting from the 14th five year plan, China’s subdivided energy industries such as wind power, photovoltaic and photothermal, nuclear power, energy storage and biomass energy will enter a stage of rapid growth. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the average annual compound growth rate of wind energy installed capacity may exceed 13.5%, and the average annual compound growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity may exceed 17.9%. With the promotion of photovoltaic + photothermal and other multi energy complementary modes and the continuous maturity of photothermal technology, China’s photothermal power generation scale is expected to reach 29gw in 2030, 88gw in 2040 and 118gw in 2050, becoming the fourth largest market in the world. In 2030, 2050 and 2060, the total installed capacity of China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) will increase by 1.2 times, 3 times and 4 times from 110 million KW, 200 million KW and 250 million KW respectively. The compound annual growth rate of lithium battery industry will exceed 25%, and China’s installed capacity of energy storage will also usher in geometric growth.
Invest in a long track, and key companies can pay attention to it. The development of new energy industry is a process of sustainable growth, which will lead a magnificent market and is a track that investors need to pay attention to for a long time. Key target companies such as Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , etc.
Risk tip: the risk that the development of new energy is less than expected, the risk of technology substitution in the new energy industry, and the risk of macro policy and liquidity adjustment.
