Industry core view:
Last week (2022.1.3-1.7), the Shenwan machinery equipment industry index rose by – 1.2%, and the CSI 300 index rose by – 2.4%. The machinery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.2pct. 13 of Shenwan’s 31 primary industries rose, and the mechanical equipment industry ranked 18th, with the overall performance in the middle reaches.
Photovoltaic equipment: photovoltaic guiding policies have been continuously issued, and n-type battery projects have been intensively put into operation. In terms of policies, two key policy documents were issued last week: the implementation opinions on accelerating the transformation and development of rural energy and helping rural revitalization, which requires the construction of green and low-carbon pilot projects for rural energy and support the development of rural photovoltaic; The action plan for innovation and development of intelligent photovoltaic industry requires that the mass production conversion efficiency of new high-efficiency Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) cells be significantly improved to form a complete supporting capacity of silicon materials, silicon wafers, equipment, materials and devices. In the past month, the prices of silicon materials and silicon chips have fallen continuously, and the profits of battery chips and components have recovered. In terms of battery chips, n-type industrialization has accelerated this year: 1) recently, n-type battery projects have been intensively put into operation, and Jingke 8GW TOPCON has been put into operation, with an average mass production efficiency of 24.5%; Jiangsu Akcome Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002610) 8GW heterojunction battery and its supporting projects are located in Rui’an, Zhejiang Province. 2) Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) hjt PECVD has been verified in Jinneng technology. At present, the average efficiency of battery chips is 24.38%, and the average efficiency of the optimal batch is 24.55%. In terms of components, according to Zhihui PV forecast, the installed capacity of PV in China is expected to exceed 60GW in 2021. It is expected that the demand for components is large in the first half of this year, and it is optimistic about the demand for component equipment this year. This year, the replacement of p-type battery by n-type battery is accelerated, and the mass production efficiency of TOPCON and hjt is continuously improved. It is recommended to pay attention to the demand for n-type battery and component equipment.
Lithium battery equipment: the penetration rate of electric vehicles in China is increasing, and the expansion of battery manufacturers is accelerating. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in mid November were 457000 and 450000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.2 times respectively. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to set a new record, with a penetration rate of 17.8% in November. According to the statistics of OFweek lithium power grid, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , China Innovation airlines, honeycomb energy, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) the capacity planning by 2025 is 670, 600, 500, 600 and 300gwh respectively. The accelerated expansion of battery enterprises has brought sufficient orders to lithium equipment manufacturers this year and next. It is suggested to pay attention to the lithium battery equipment enterprises that are the leaders of integrated lithium battery equipment and benefit from overseas expansion.
Construction machinery: the central economic work conference emphasizes steady growth and pays attention to the recovery of construction machinery demand this year. From the sales data, the decline of construction machinery sales narrowed: CME estimates that the sales of excavators (including exports) in December 2021 will be about 22500, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 28.64%. The estimated sales volume in the Chinese market is 16000 units, with a growth rate of – 41%, and the decline in sales growth in the Chinese market has narrowed; The estimated sales volume in the export market is 6500 units, with a growth rate of 54%. The decline in sales growth in the export market is mainly affected by the high base in the same period in 2020. According to the statistics of Securities Daily, the total investment of major projects started in December last year reached 2.28 trillion yuan, and the capital construction force was made under the requirement of steady growth. At present, the valuation of construction machinery is low in the mechanical equipment industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the valuation and repair of construction machinery under the demand of steady growth.
Industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) : “the fourteenth five year plan” Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry plan will increase the manufacturing Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) density by 100% in 2025. According to the “14th five year plan” Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industrial development plan, the average annual growth rate of Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industrial revenue exceeded 20%, and the Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) density of manufacturing industry doubled. We are optimistic about the localization of industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) . Under the logic of machine replacement brought by policy support and population aging, China’s industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) may usher in rapid development during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Risk factors: the investment in fixed assets is less than expected, the industrialization of heterojunction is less than expected, the issuance of special bonds is less than expected, and the industry competition intensifies the risk.
