On Friday, the average selling price of three yuan pigs abroad was 15.16 yuan / kg, down 6.30% from last Friday. On Friday, the average price of Sanyuan piglets sold outside 15kg nationwide was 26.92 yuan / kg, down 0.04% from last Friday. Pig prices fell significantly month on month this week. We judge that the main reasons for the decline in pig prices are as follows: first, there is a certain drop in market demand after the festival; Second, the market entered the last marketing period before the Spring Festival. The centralized marketing increased, the market supply increased, and the pig price was suppressed. However, after several days of decline, farmers’ resistance gradually rose, the decline in the northern region gradually narrowed over the weekend, and pig prices in the Northeast showed signs of rebound. It is expected that there will be a moderate opportunity for the price to rise before the Spring Festival, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of cycle dimension, we need to continue to pay attention to the deregulation of pig production capacity in the industry. Especially under the expected background of the double bottom of pig prices after the Spring Festival, farmers may accelerate the pace of eliminating sow production capacity, which will further strengthen our judgment on the reversal expectation of 22h2 cycle. The trend of the plate is strong this week, and the market expectation is improved. From the perspective of enterprises, the negative impact of the cycle is gradually digested, the average market value of the head is in the bottom range, and the industry enters the left layout range. It is recommended to focus on the production capacity layout of enterprises and the phased results of cost reduction and efficiency increase, and it is recommended to focus on the breeding head enterprises with obvious advantages in cost control, Secondly, focus on the second-line and small American Standard with dilemma reversal and large cost improvement expectation and certainty of listing growth.
As food security has gradually become an important focus of China’s agricultural and rural policies, a series of seed industry related policies have been issued one after another, the development of China’s seed industry has entered a new stage, and the development environment of leading seed enterprises has been greatly improved. In the policy intensive period at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, issues related to food security and seed industry are expected to continue to receive policy attention. It is suggested to pay attention to enterprises with core R & D and innovation capabilities under the catalysis of policies.
Market review:
Among the sub industries of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery this week, the weekly increases and decreases are as follows: Fishery 4.83%, livestock and poultry breeding 3.94%, animal health care 3.46%, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing 2.13%, feed – 1.86% and planting – 3.78%. Among the companies in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry this week, the top five companies are: Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) 19.13%, * ST Toyo 17.86%, Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) 16.56%, Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) 13.94%, New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) 11.05%; The top five companies are: Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) – 8.43%, Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) – 8.83%, Ningxia Xiaoming Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300967) – 9.38%, Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) – 10.82%, Shandong Xiantan Co.Ltd(002746) – 13.06%.
Key tracking:
1. New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) announce the fixed increase plan
Event: on January 6, New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) announced that it planned to issue no more than 368 million additional shares to Nanfang Hope Industrial Co., Ltd., the largest shareholder of the company, at an issue price of 12.24 yuan / share. The total fund-raising is expected to be no more than 4.5 billion yuan. After deducting the issuance expenses, it will be used to repay bank debts.
Key recommendations:
[key recommendations] Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201)
[attention recommended] Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) , Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) , Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526)
Risk tips: price fluctuation risk of livestock and poultry, impact of extreme weather, impact of animal diseases, etc
