Vehicle: recovery upward, focusing on independent rise and new energy development.
In the short term, the degree of core shortage is gradually alleviated, and the industry has entered the recovery stage. With the gradual improvement, the industry will enter the inventory adding stage, and relevant companies in the industry are expected to benefit. We predict that the sales volume of China’s auto market will grow by 8% ~ 10% in 2022. New energy vehicle models are gradually enriched and are expected to maintain a high outlook. We expect that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles is expected to exceed 5 million in 2022. In the medium and long term, under the reshaping of business model, the profit level and imagination margin of automobile enterprises are upward, and the industry valuation system is transferred from traditional manufacturing industry to “platform + software” enterprises. The overestimation at the initial stage of reform is reasonable. Independent brands have made a rapid breakthrough in the sales of terminal hardware, and have rich reserves at the software level dominated by automatic driving, which is expected to fully enjoy dividends in the industry reform. It is suggested to pay attention to independent brand vehicle enterprises: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Geely Automobile, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , etc.
Auto parts: focus on industry trends and incremental changes.
With the beginning of the auto inventory cycle, the prosperity of the auto parts industry has increased simultaneously. In the medium and long term, the promotion of the new four modernizations of automobiles will drive the change of the industrial supply system, and the fields that comply with the development trend of the industry will have better investment value. It is suggested to pay attention to the subdivided fields such as electric drive, automotive electronics, air suspension and integrated die casting.
Investment advice
It is recommended to pay attention to independent brand vehicle enterprises: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Geely Automobile, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , etc. Suggestions for auto parts: electric drive system ( Zhuhai Enpower Electric Co.Ltd(300681) ), automotive electronics ( Foryou Corporation(002906) ), air suspension ( Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) ), integrated die casting ( Huada Automotive Technology Corp.Ltd(603358) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) ).
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downturn; Intensified competition in the new energy vehicle market; The development of new energy vehicle technology is less than expected.
