\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812)
[key investment points]
Wet diaphragm industry leader, shipments for three consecutive years the country's first. Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) it is mainly engaged in the production and sales of lithium battery wet diaphragm and traditional packaging materials. Its core business is the wet diaphragm business. It has entered the supply chain of global mainstream battery manufacturers and is the absolute leader in the field of wet diaphragm.
Wet + coating is the mainstream technical route of the diaphragm industry. The downstream continues to boom, and the diaphragm market space is broad. The comprehensive performance of wet diaphragm is better than that of dry method, which can meet the lightweight demand of power battery. Coating modification can make up for the shortcomings of poor thermal stability, low puncture strength and low wettability of wet diaphragm. WET + coating has become the mainstream route. In the future, under the trend of automobile electrification, the demand for lithium diaphragm is clear. We predict that the compound growth rate of wet diaphragm will be 35.8% from 2021 to 2025.
Enjie has outstanding cost advantages, coating + layout and increased performance in overseas markets. High production efficiency brings the company the ultimate cost advantage: (1) high single line output and less fixed cost and investment shared per unit product; (2) high product yield, low unit consumption of raw materials and low unit cost; (3) high recovery efficiency and low consumption of auxiliary materials; At the same time, the company's exclusive mastery of online coating technology can further increase efficiency and reduce cost. Obtaining a number of coating patent licenses and actively expanding overseas markets will bring incremental space to the company's performance.
Diversified business layout, dry process diaphragm facing the energy storage market, and aluminum-plastic film facing the soft pack battery market. The energy storage market broke out. The company cooperated with Asahi Huacheng to jointly produce dry process diaphragms for energy storage and low energy density demand; The forward-looking layout of the aluminum-plastic film market has entered the verification stage of power battery manufacturers. The aluminum-plastic film is expected to re engrave the growth curve of wet diaphragm, which is conducive to performance growth.
[investment advice]
We estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 75.43/112.46/16.132 billion respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 21.19/33.36/5.207 billion respectively, the EPS will be RMB 2.37/3.74/5.83 respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 105.45/66.98/42.92, which is rated as "overweight".
1. Key assumptions
In the context of carbon neutrality, mainstream countries around the world have issued a series of policies to promote the development of photovoltaic, wind power and electric vehicle industries. We believe that power batteries and energy storage batteries will continue to benefit, and the demand in all links of the lithium battery industry chain is strong. We expect that (1) in terms of power batteries, in 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 22 million, with a compound growth rate of 34%, and the corresponding power battery shipments will reach 1562gwh, with a compound growth rate of 37%; (2) In terms of energy storage market, overseas energy storage batteries are mainly ternary, and China's lithium iron phosphate energy storage batteries are basically dry diaphragm. We expect that the shipment scale of batteries in overseas energy storage market will be increased from 22gwh to 141gwh from 2021 to 2025. In addition, it is expected to gradually switch to iron lithium in the future, and the ternary permeability will gradually reduce from 100% in 2021 to 65% in 2025
We predict that the global demand for wet diaphragm will be 25.92 billion square meters in 2025, the annual growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will be 35.8% respectively, and the company's diaphragm shipments from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.754 billion square meters, 4.407 billion square meters and 6.608 billion square meters respectively.
2. Innovation
2.1 the company's equipment + process advantages can continue to maintain a dividend period of about 2 years. The diaphragm industry is essentially a know-how industry with strong applied scientific attributes and obvious learning curve. The company entered the wet diaphragm industry in 2010. Years of technology and process precipitation have led to high product quality and efficient production efficiency, which is the root of the company's strong cost advantage. However, peer companies such as Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) have also accelerated the layout of the wet diaphragm field. The company's consistency advantage and production efficiency advantage are facing fierce catch-up from peers. The company's exclusive online coating technology is the focus of cost reduction and efficiency increase in the future.
2.2 with the blessing of patent authorization, the company's coating diaphragm is ahead of the industry. Whether it can break through the patent bottleneck is the key to determine the future growth. Coating + wet process has become the mainstream technology in the market, and the base film manufacturer has accelerated the construction of coating production line. The company has obtained the coating technology authorization from LG Chemical and emperor of Japan. At present, it has mastered the water-based and oil-based coating technology and has a variety of coating products. However, patent authorization is a short-term path. In the long run, the company still needs to strengthen technology research and development and break through the patent bottleneck of coating technology.
3. Important matters
1. The expanded production capacity is greatly released, and the production line remains at full capacity;
2. Further improve production efficiency;
3. The online coating capacity is gradually put into operation and verified by the battery factory;
4. The company has made significant progress in other membrane products.
[risk tips]
Capacity release is less than expected;
Downstream demand is lower than expected;
The peer learning curve is shortened and the industry competition is intensified.
