\u3000\u3000 Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (600438)
In 2021, the performance maintained high growth, in line with expectations
The company issued the announcement of performance increase in 2021, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company of 8-8.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 122% - 136%; It is expected to realize a net profit of 8-8.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 232% - 253%. The main reasons for the performance growth come from the high demand for high purity silicon in the downstream, its own high production capacity and the steady operation of other businesses. We raised the profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is expected to reach RMB 8.017/99.01/12.459 billion, EPS is 1.78/2.20/2.77 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding P / E ratio of the current stock price is 23.6/19.1/15.2 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The tight balance will continue, and the profit of polysilicon business will continue to grow due to the superposition of high prices and high production capacity
(1) price: polysilicon material market will be in short supply in 2021. Although the global capacity is expected to increase significantly in 2022, it takes an average of 6 months for the new capacity to reach full capacity; And with the establishment of the goal of carbon neutralization and carbon peak, the demand for photovoltaic installation is still great. Therefore, tight balance will remain the main theme of the market in 2022, and the price is expected to remain high. With the gradual decline of the company's cost, the gross profit margin is expected to remain above 50%.
(2) production capacity: with Leshan phase II and Baoshan phase I put into operation within the year, the production capacity of polysilicon will reach 180000 tons by the end of 2021. After Leshan phase III and Baotou phase II are put into operation in 2022, the production capacity will reach 260000 tons, and the market share is expected to increase to about 34%. High price plus high production capacity, polysilicon profit is expected to maintain strong growth.
Large size battery is expected to become the main performance contribution point, and feed breeding is gradually recovering
(1) Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery: affected by the price of raw materials, the price of silicon wafer increased significantly and the gross profit margin decreased. In 2022, the company's total battery capacity is expected to exceed 55gw, of which 90% of the capacity is 210 and 166 large-size batteries with better profitability. With the application of TOPCON technology on 210 battery cells and the completion of 1gwtopcon pilot test line at the end of 2021, large-size battery cells are expected to become the main contribution point of performance under the advantages of technology and capacity. (2) Feed and breeding: with the epidemic control and the gradual recovery of terminal consumption, the price of aquatic products and the number of live pigs continue to rise, driving the rise of feed demand. After the company acquired all aquatic products and some pig feed businesses of tianbang in the second half of the year, it is expected to further improve the market share and maintain strong market competitiveness.
Risk warning: the installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected; The production capacity is lower than expected; Polysilicon and silicon wafer prices fell and profits were under pressure; The price fluctuation of raw materials is higher than expected; Technology advancement is less than expected
