\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Guangben’s sales volume improved month on month. Guangben sold 78400 vehicles in December 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5% and a slight increase of 0.9% month on month; In 2021, the cumulative sales volume was 780300 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%. According to the passenger Federation, in December 2021, the wholesale sales of narrow passenger vehicles fell by 1% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of guangben’s wholesale sales was lower than the industry average. In December, accord series sold 20460 vehicles, Binzhi sold 18071 vehicles and haoying series sold 14075 vehicles. In terms of new cars, new Odyssey, Xingge and other new models were launched in December. In the field of new energy vehicles, guangben will introduce the intelligent pure electric architecture e: narchitecture. The first model e: NP1 is expected to be listed in the first half of 2022. Five pure electric models will be launched in the next five years to continuously improve the market competitiveness of pure electric vehicles. Chip supply is expected to improve marginally in 2022. It is expected that the launch of new cars will promote the improvement of guangben’s sales.
Guangfeng’s sales volume increased significantly month on month, and continued to expand the product matrix of new energy vehicles. Guangfeng sold 98500 vehicles in December 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 36.5% and a month on month increase of 15.9%; In 2021, the cumulative sales volume was 828000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 8.2%. The sales growth in December significantly outperformed the industry average. In December, the monthly sales of Guangfeng Camry series were 27195, that of willanda series was 16665, that of hanlanda series was 14401, and that of leiling series was 21889. 2022 modified models such as leiling and yarisl family were officially launched in December. New models such as fenglanda and Weisa will be launched in the first quarter of 2022. In terms of pure electric vehicles, Guangfeng will introduce bz4x, the first model of BZ pure electric series, and position it as a pure electric medium-sized SUV. It is expected to be listed in early 2022. Guangfeng will continue to expand the product matrix of pure electric and hybrid electric vehicles in China.
GAC’s independent sales increased slightly compared with the same period, and ea’an actively promoted the process of production expansion and mixed reform. GAC independently sold 32200 vehicles in December 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a month on month decrease of 9.6%; In 2021, the cumulative sales volume was 324200, with a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. In terms of new energy vehicles, gac-e’an sold 14500 vehicles in December 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 98.5% and a month on month decrease of 3.6%; In 2021, the cumulative sales volume was 120200 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, and the sales volume doubled. Modified models such as aionsplus and aionlxplus will be launched in January 2022. According to the company’s announcement, the second plant capacity construction project will be implemented in ai’an, with a planned capacity of 200000 vehicles / year, which is expected to be completed in December 2022. After being put into operation, ai’an is expected to have an annual capacity of 400000 vehicles. The company continued to promote the mixed reform of Ethiopia and Angola and introduced war investment to boost the development of new energy business.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.72, 1.00 and 1.15 yuan respectively. The chip will affect the profit. According to the 22-year PE valuation and referring to the valuation of comparable companies, the company will be given 21 times PE in 2022, the target price will be 21 yuan, and the buy rating will be maintained.
Risk tips
The sales volume of GAC passenger cars, Guangfeng, guangben and guangfeike is lower than the expected risk, and the demand of the passenger car industry is lower than the expected risk.
