\u3000\u3000 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (000799)
Business analysis
The basic orientation is good, and the first quarter can be expected to start well. Recently, the company’s share price has been adjusted, mainly due to the frequent covid-19 epidemic in many places, and the market is worried that the limited consumption scene under control will affect the consumption atmosphere in the peak season of the Spring Festival. We believe that the impact of the epidemic on consumer recovery is expected to be marginally weakened, and the channel feedback is that the consumption atmosphere of the spring festival may increase year-on-year. The current rating is stable, with internal reference of about 830 yuan, hongtan 20 of about 400 yuan and hongtan 18 of about 300 yuan; The overall inventory is benign, about 1.5 months in the province and about 1.5-2 months outside the province; The proportion of payment has increased, and the proportion in the first quarter is expected to increase to 35%. We judge that the company has a promising start and Q1 performance is expected to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the steady and good fundamentals.
Focusing on large single products and accelerating nationalization, the 22-year high performance can be expected. 1) Product side: according to channel feedback, the internal reference has doubled in 21 years, continued the steady price increment in 22 years, and the target growth rate of sales caliber is more than 60%. The waist drunkard series aims to build a large single product. In 22 years, it is expected to straighten out the problems of product dispersion and no obvious differentiation of price band, and the sales caliber is expected to achieve a growth rate of more than 30%. 2) Regional end: focusing on “strengthening the base, breaking through the highland and deepening nationalization”, the company will quickly achieve 500-1 billion in base markets such as Henan, Shandong and Hebei in the future; Beijing, East China, Guangdong and other highland markets strengthened brand atmosphere building and accelerated nationalization.
The leading brand of fuyuxiang has the potential to rise again, and the valuation has been cost-effective. In the medium and long term, the 1000 yuan price of the internal reference card has a solid high-end brand image. The drunkard series aims at the secondary high-end to share the consumption upgrading dividend. Through the continuous sales company model empowerment, circle marketing and COFCO support, the 10 billion revenue target of the “14th five year plan” can be expected. The current stock price corresponds to about 44 times of PE in 22 years. The valuation has cost performance. It is recommended to adjust the layout.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We estimate that the revenue growth rate in 21-23 years is 86% / 42% / 32% respectively, and the corresponding revenue is 34 / 48 / 6.4 billion yuan respectively; The profit growth rate is 95% / 53% / 39% respectively, the corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 9.6/14.7/2.03 billion respectively, and the corresponding EPS is RMB 2.95/4.52/6.25 respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 67 / 44 / 32x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The progress of nationalization is not as expected, the risk of repeated epidemic, macroeconomic risk and food safety problems.
