\u3000\u3000 Sirio Pharma Co.Ltd(300791) (300791)
Key investment points
Company: cdmo leader in nutrition and health food. (1) The company's products cover multiple dosage forms and multiple functional platforms to meet different people in the whole life cycle, from infants and children to the middle-aged and elderly. In China, the company has achieved extensive customer coverage and actively supported some fast-growing cutting-edge brands. The company's business expansion in Europe is in the charge of the European marketing team, and the products are jointly supplied by Germany's ayanda and China's production base. In North America, the market is developed through the North American marketing team, and the products are supplied by the Chinese production base. (2) The ownership structure is stable and the employee incentive is sufficient. (3) The production capacity has been gradually improved, and the revenue has grown steadily, with a revenue CAGR of about 20% in the past five years. Traditional dosage forms are stable and innovative dosage forms are effective. The overall profitability increased steadily, and the gross profit margin of tablets and nutritional soft candy was high.
Industry: the C-end market has a broad space, and the b-end enterprises benefit fully. (1) In terms of scale, health food is growing steadily, and the space for functional food is broad. (2) The two major trends of the industry are clear. Aging increases demand and the consumption structure is younger. (3) From the perspective of pattern, the downstream pattern is scattered, and b-end enterprises are expected to fully benefit.
Core competitiveness: four advantages, industry-leading and iterative strengthening. (1) Good industry influence: win-win contract production mode and endorsement of well-known customers' brands. (2) Excellent application innovation: both internal and external repair can improve R & D, and the technology transformation channel is smooth. (3) Efficient operation and organization: large-scale supply of multi dosage forms and global supply chain layout. (4) Professional b-end marketing force: organizational structure innovation and efficiency improvement can be expected.
Profit forecast and Valuation: as a cdmo leading enterprise of nutrition and health food, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 260 / 355 / 464 million yuan from 2021 to 2023, with growth rates of 1.04%, 36.45% and 30.88% respectively, and eps1 44/1.97/2.58。 Considering the high performance growth of the company from 2022 to 2023, the company is given 30xpe in 2022, corresponding to the target market value of RMB 10.7 billion, and a buy rating is given for the first time.
Risk warning: raw material price fluctuation risk; Customer churn risk; Risk of intensified industry competition; The demand for innovative dosage forms is less than the expected risk.
