\u3000\u3000 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625)
Key investment points
Key points of announcement: Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) in December, the output was 202839, with a year-on-year increase of – 16.55% and a month on month increase of – 7.99%; Wholesale 178019 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of -11.26% and a month on month increase of -5.32%. The output of Chang’an autonomous (Chongqing Chang’an + Hefei Chang’an) was 91029, a year-on-year increase of – 30.65%. The sales volume was 76267 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of – 13.47% and a month on month increase of – 16.10%. Changan Ford produced 37148 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 27.98%, a month on month increase of + 8.23%, and sold 36875 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 18.50% and a month on month increase of + 27.41%. Throughout the year, the total production and sales of Chang’an were 2290065 / 2300530 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.64% / + 14.82%; The annual production and sales of Changan were 1155880 / 1176661 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 17.18% / + 23.65%; The annual production and sales of Changan Ford were 314321 / 304682 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 35.53% / + 20.29%.
In December, the overall production batch of Chang’an fell month on month, and Chang’an Ford performed well. 1) Chang’an autonomous: the production batch decreased slightly in December on a month on month basis. Throughout the year, the independent production batch of Chang’an achieved + 17.18% / + 23.65%. Among the key models, the cumulative sales of Chang’an cs75 exceeded 280000, with a year-on-year increase of more than 4.94%; The annual cumulative sales volume of Yidong series exceeds 170000; The annual cumulative sales volume of uni series exceeded 120000, with a year-on-year increase of more than 74.81%; The annual cumulative sales volume of cs55 exceeded 140000, with a year-on-year increase of more than 27.35%. Among them, the sales volume of the second generation cs55plus exceeded 20000 continuously from October to December 2021, and the cumulative orders exceeded 85000 in the four months after listing, with a beautiful performance; The annual sales volume of cs35 series exceeded 80000; The annual cumulative sales volume of Benben e-star exceeded 70000, with a year-on-year increase of more than 523.44%; The cumulative annual sales volume of Auchan brand exceeded 228000, with a year-on-year increase of more than 113.38%. 2) Changan Ford: the month on month performance of the production batch in December was better than that of the company as a whole, and the chip shortage continued to improve. Changan Ford’s annual production batch in 2021 was + 35.53% / + 20.29% year-on-year, with good performance. 3) Export: Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) in 2021, the annual overseas sales exceeded 110000, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 70.59%, and the export performance was good. 4) In terms of new cars, December 2022 uni-t2 0t is listed at a price of RMB 137900-149900. Uni-v will open the reservation on January 10, 2022. 5) In terms of service system construction, uniservice was launched in Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) in December. Based on users’ different car scenarios and experience needs, brand experience space (car buying and selling services), uni workshop (car washing, beauty and other maintenance services), self-made space (modification services) and so on were launched to provide users with the ultimate service experience, which has been in Chongqing, Qingdao, Changsha Beijing and Nanjing officially opened.
Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) overall Replenishment: according to our self built inventory system, the overall enterprise inventory of Chang’an in December was + 24820 (compared with November); In December, the inventory of Changan’s independent enterprises was + 14762 in the current month (compared with November); Changan Ford enterprise inventory in the current month + 273 (compared with November).
Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) the forecast of operating revenue of RMB 106.214/137.866/173.574 billion from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of + 25.6% / + 29.8% / + 25.9%, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 4.547/59.46/7017 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 36.8% / + 30.8% / + 18.0%, EPS of RMB 0.60/0.78/0.92, and corresponding PE valuation of 24 / 19 / 16 times. Considering that Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) will usher in a new round of improvement in future performance, maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: epidemic control is lower than expected; The recovery of passenger car demand was lower than expected.
