\u3000\u3000 Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002422) (002422)
Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002422) released the performance express of 2021. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of RMB 17.229 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 4.64%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.096 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 32.16%, and a non net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.015 billion, with a growth rate of 61.54%, realizing eps0 78 yuan.
Look at Q4 alone: the company achieved an operating revenue of 4.542 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.38%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 248 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.4%; Deduct non net profit of 212 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%.
In the second half of 2021, the infusion of the company recovered, the quantity of generic drugs increased, and the product structure continued to be optimized. In 2021, the covid-19 epidemic was still repeated, but the overall performance of the company grew strongly. Mainly due to the recovery of the growth rate of the infusion sector, the large volume of the new drug sector has a significant push on the company's overall revenue. On the revenue side, Q1-Q4 revenue is 4.151 billion yuan, 4.081 billion yuan, 4.454 billion yuan and 4.542 billion yuan respectively. Q2-q4 is improving quarter by quarter. The main driving factor is that the company makes every effort to expand the market of infusion and non infusion preparations. The company's non infusion preparations sector continues to increase in volume, and the growth rate of multiple varieties is strong, driving the growth of the company's revenue and profit.
In terms of sub sectors, the infusion has warmed up, the new drugs have been released rapidly, and CHUANNING has temporarily stopped production due to the impact of the epidemic. The main reasons for changes in operating performance are as follows:
(1) in 2021, despite the impact of local epidemic fluctuations, the company made every effort to expand the market of infusion and non infusion preparations, and the operating revenue and profit increased year-on-year; (2) In recent years, the approved generic drugs of the company continued to increase in large quantities, and the operating revenue and profit increased rapidly; (3) The company actively optimized the financing structure, reduced the average financing interest rate and financial expenses; (4) The company continued to vigorously promote the "innovation driven" strategy, and the R & D expenses increased year-on-year; (5) Due to the impact of the local epidemic, the subsidiary CHUANNING biology temporarily stopped production for some time, resulting in shutdown losses, and the profit decreased year-on-year; (6) With the expansion of the company's business scale, the corresponding salary, depreciation and other management expenses increase; (7) The shareholding proportion of minority shareholders of the subsidiary Botai biology increased, and the loss of minority shareholders increased significantly year-on-year. In 2021, we expect that the profits will be split into 1.3-1.4 billion profits for large infusion, about 300 million profits for API, 400-450 million profits for newly approved generic drugs, about 300 million profits for old generic drugs, 140 million profits for Shi Si pharmaceutical, about 100 million other profits, about 100 million reduction in financial expenses and more than 1.6 billion R & D investment.
Sorting out the company's long-term investment logic: the company still chose high R & D investment in difficult times. From the perspective of approved products from 2019 to 2021, generic drugs have gradually entered the harvest period. The company's long-term logic remains unchanged, the large infusion industry has been upgraded, the structure has been adjusted, and the profitability of Kelun has increased. The environmental protection standard is high, and the full production profit of CHUANNING is improved. Imitation leads innovation and provides power for the high growth of the company's future performance.
Profit forecast and valuation. The company has gradually recovered from the impact of the epidemic in 2021. The achievement of generic drugs further promotes the achievement of high-speed growth. The continuous follow-up of follow-up varieties will give the company continued driving force for revenue, and the pace of transformation of the company is more and more stable. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.096 billion yuan, 1.285 billion yuan and 1.513 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 32.2%, 17.2% and 17.8% respectively, EPS of 0.76 yuan, 0.89 yuan and 1.05 yuan respectively, and PE of 27x, 23x and 19x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: risk of industrial policy change; The risk that the CHUANNING project fails to meet the expectations; Risk of lag in the progress of generic drug conformity evaluation; Risk of new drug R & D failure.
