\u3000\u3000 Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (600048)
Events
On January 9, 2022, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) announced the annual performance express of 2021. The company expects a total operating revenue of 285 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 17.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 4.7%.
Comments
The net profit attributable to the parent company was slightly lower than expected. The company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was about 8% lower than our previous forecast, mainly because the gross profit margin of carried forward projects decreased more than we expected. With the gradual carry over of high prices, we expect the company's settlement gross profit margin to recover slightly this year compared with 2021.
The annual sales volume maintained a positive growth, better than the industry average. Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) in 2021, the annual contracted sales amount was 534.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and the target at the beginning of the year was about 97%. The growth rate and the completion degree of sales target were better than the industry average. According to Kerui data, the full caliber sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises in 2021 increased by - 3.2% year-on-year. The average sales completion rate of the real estate enterprises that announced the annual sales target in 2021 was 88%.
Benefit from excellent subject credit and smooth bond issuance channels. Since the second half of this year, the liquidity tension in the real estate industry has become common, the real estate enterprises have experienced frequent thunderstorms, the credit risk has spread, and the financing channels for issuing bonds have been blocked. Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) as a central enterprise, the main body has excellent credit and is more smooth in financing than private enterprises. On November 3 and November 20, 2021, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) issued two medium-term notes with the amount of RMB 2.5 billion and RMB 2 billion respectively, and the coupon rate was 3.25% and 3.55% respectively. On November 23, 2021, the company announced the plan for issuing bonds. It is expected that the issuance scale will not exceed RMB 9.8 billion and the term will not exceed 10 years. We believe that in the current round of liquidation of the real estate industry, the company holds a large amount of cash and is expected to take land against the trend, and the settlement revenue and sales scale are expected to maintain positive growth in the future.
Investment advice
The performance in 2021 announced in the company's performance express is not as good as our original profit forecast. Considering that the decline of gross profit margin is more than expected, the subsequent recovery will take time, and the overall sales of the real estate industry have not stabilized yet, we lowered the company's profit forecast and reduced EPS from 2.50 yuan, 2.73 yuan and 3.14 yuan to 2.31 yuan, 2.52 yuan and 2.91 yuan in 2021-23, with ranges of - 7.7% and - 7.5% respectively -7.4%。 Meanwhile, the target price was lowered to 19.60 yuan / share (7.7% lower than the previous target price), corresponding to 8.5x, 7.8x and 6.7x PE in 2021-23, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Gross profit margin is lower than expected; The growth rate of settlement income is lower than expected; The improvement of future sales is less than expected
