\u3000\u3000 Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) (600132)
Investment logic
Current market concerns: 1) how to continue the life cycle of online red single product Wusu? 2) Apart from Wusu, are other products possible to become large single products in China? This paper will focus on the competitive advantages and space of Wusu, and look forward to other potential products.
Carlsberg's asset restructuring was completed, and Western King started nationalization. Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) completed the asset restructuring in December 20. In terms of products, the company has established a 6 + 6 combination of local and international brands, and its product structure and high-end speed are ahead of its peers (high-end accounts for 19% in 20 years, higher than Tsingtao Beer 15% and China Resources 8%). Regionally, the company's core market is located in the west, with Chongqing, Xinjiang and Ningxia accounting for more than 80%. In terms of management, senior executives have many years of experience in famous overseas enterprises and FMCG. Since 2016, they have implemented the "sail 22" plan, learned from Carlsberg's experience, closed factories and laid off workers, optimized the supply chain system, and continuously improved their business efficiency.
Wusu: focus on differential competition, online popular models continue the life cycle. We expect that Wusu will achieve sales of 800000-900000 tons in 21 years, with a compound growth rate of more than 35% in 18-21 years. 1) Wusu's popularity is accidental, and its core is reflected in the rapid fermentation of marketing; However, there are also inevitability: the capacity of high-end beer is rapidly expanded (it is estimated that the high-end sales CAGR in 20-25 years is about 15%), and the position in Wusu territory is stable; Relying on product differentiation (large capacity, high number of height, high wort concentration), high channel enthusiasm (misplaced entry into the most suitable high-end catering channel, maintaining 20% - 30% high channel profit margin) and tonal brand marketing outside Xinjiang, it is expected to accelerate penetration. 2) From the three dimensions of market share under the big city plan, benchmarking large single products of more than 10 yuan and benchmarking medium-sized large single products, Wusu outside Xinjiang is expected to reach 1.4-1.6 million tons in the medium and long term. In the future, the focus in Xinjiang will be price increase + structural upgrading, the focus outside Xinjiang will be on the planned progress of big cities + category expansion, the 22-year horse racing mechanism will end, and the channel management and control power and cost-effectiveness ratio will be improved month on month. In addition, the company's capacity utilization rate is nearly 70%, more than 20 factories can produce Wusu, and new factories in East and South China escort the nationalization.
Other brands: the replicability of Wusu's experience needs to be observed, and attention should be paid to channel empowerment. 1) 1664 is a fine brewed white beer (40000 tons in 20 years) with high gross margin and deeply loved by women. It is also one of the key points of current cost investment. In the future, imported parallel goods will be accelerated and replaced. 2) Lebao and Chongqing are positioned as mid-range brands and look forward to introducing new markets with the help of Wusu's channel network in the future. 3) Low alcohol liquor is expected to become an important product in super high-end in the middle and long term due to its long-term development and high prosperity.
Investment advice and valuation
It is estimated that the year-on-year revenue from 21 to 23 will be + 21% / 18% / 15%, and the year-on-year net profit attributable to the parent company under the pro forma standard will be + 39% / 25% / 29%. The corresponding EPS will be 2.41/3.02/3.90 yuan, and the PE will be 55 / 44 / 34 times respectively. The PE will be 45 times in 23 years, and the target price will be 175.5 yuan. The "buy" rating will be given for the first coverage.
Risk tips
The nationalization of USSR is not as expected / the regional market competition intensifies / the risk of repeated epidemic / the cost of raw materials rises too fast / the risk of food safety
