\u3000\u3000 Gemdale Corporation(600383) (600383)
The company announced the sales and land acquisition in December. The sales amount and sales area in December were 24.07 billion yuan and 1.346 million m3 respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 35.6% and 29.1%.
The sales amount in a single month decreased significantly and maintained a double-digit growth rate throughout the year. The rapid decline in the real estate sales market in the second half of 2021 also affected the company’s sales data. Although the monthly data fell in December, from the perspective of the whole year, the cumulative sales amount of the company from January to December was 286.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%. From January to December, the cumulative sales area was 13.77 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%. The annual sales amount of the company ranked 11th in the Kerui list, up 2 places from last year. In 2021, the real estate market went down. In order to speed up the payment collection, the price war in some cities was obvious. Thanks to the good urban layout and product strength, the company achieved an average sales price of 20821 yuan / ping in 2021, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year, which advantageously guaranteed the realization of future profits.
Investment tends to be cautious in the second half of the year, and land acquisition is resumed at the end of the year. In December, the company added 2 pieces of land, totaling 290000 square meters, with a land acquisition amount of 1.6 billion yuan. The company invested actively in the first half of 2021, with a total of 51 land acquisition. In the second half of 2021, with the pressure of new house sales, the investment tends to be cautious, with a total of 12 land acquisition. From January to December, a total of 7.854 million square meters of soil storage was added, a year-on-year decrease of 35.1%. From January to December, the cumulative amount of land acquisition was 61.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.3%. From January to December, the investment intensity was 21.5%, down 17.8% year-on-year. The company did not add new soil reserves in October and November, and resumed land acquisition in December, indicating that the company has basically adapted to the rhythm of regulation. Although land acquisition in the open market has slowed down, it may still have an opportunity in the M & a market at the beginning of the year. From the perspective of urban layout, among the company’s 63 new plots, projects in the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing Tianjin Hebei and the Pearl River Delta account for 37%, 13% and 19% respectively, and continue to give full play to the advantages of urban agglomeration.
Maintain the buy rating and adjust the target price to 17.08 yuan (the original target price was 18.55 yuan). We predict that the company’s EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.44/2.71/3.09 yuan (originally predicted that the EPS from 2021 to 2022 will be 3.15/3.62 yuan), mainly due to the reduction of the expectation on the settlement gross profit margin of real estate projects. The comparable company’s valuation in 2021 is 7x. We give the company a valuation of 7x in 2021, corresponding to the target price of 17.08 yuan.
Risk tips
Sales in the real estate market were significantly lower than expected.
Counter cyclical regulation is less than expected.
Uncertainty of shareholder reduction. Profit forecast and investment suggestions
