\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) (605098)
The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is expected to increase by 50% - 69% year-on-year, maintaining the "buy" rating
On January 9, 2022, the company issued the announcement of annual performance increase in 2021. In 2021, the company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 521-550 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37% - 45%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 160-180 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50% - 69%, slightly exceeding our expectations, mainly due to the improvement of brand influence after the company's listing, the continuous expansion of organization scale and abundant orders for management training and consulting business; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit is 133-153 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 31% - 51%, mainly due to the non recurring income of 25 million yuan expected from the trust products purchased by the company. Based on the announcement of the company's performance increase in 2021, we raised the profit forecast for 2021-2023 and predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021-2023 would be 170 / 221 / 276 million yuan respectively (160 / 208 / 258 million yuan respectively before), and the corresponding EPS would be 2.02/2.62/3.27 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE score of the current stock price was 28.7/22.1/17.7 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The policy continues to help the head vocational education enterprises, take listing measures or consolidate the leading position of the company's management education
In the second half of 2021, the introduction of the opinions on promoting the high-quality development of modern vocational education, the deliberation and approval of the vocational training plan of the 14th five year plan and other related events all clarify the important position of vocational education or help the development of leading enterprises in the industry. In addition, the company's successful listing on the A-share main board may enhance its brand influence and financial strength, so as to accelerate customer expansion. On December 30, 2021, the company officially reached a strategic cooperation with Hongxing Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) , a giant in the home furnishing industry, to explore the next city for key customers. As of September 30, 2021, the company's contractual liabilities amounted to 712 million yuan, up 37.45% from 518 million yuan as of June 30, 2020, and 3.49% from 688 million yuan as of June 30, 2021, or verified that the income of newly enrolled students in 2021q3 continued to increase, which contributed to the subsequent performance growth and the leading position of management training became more and more stable.
Core courses continue to be iterated and upgraded, and Omo digital business school explores more needs
The company's core product "concentrated EMBA" has been upgraded since September 1, 2021, and the tuition fee has been adjusted to 35800 / person (price increase of 24.3%). At present, it is steadily advancing. In addition, the company officially launched the enterprise university SaaS platform, namely Omo digital business school, in November 2021, aiming to realize the deep integration of "offline enterprise university + online digital business school" of large enterprises, help specialized, special and new small and medium-sized enterprises establish a professional talent training system, or is expected to tap the needs of enterprise digital transformation and explore new growth space.
Risk tips: changes in social training policies, repeated impact of epidemic situation, loss of excellent teachers and other risks.
