\u3000\u3000 Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (600438)
Events
On January 6, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company will be 8-8.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 122-136%; Among them, Q4 realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.07-2.57 billion in a single quarter, in line with expectations.
Performance review:
The net profit per ton of Q4 silicon material was flat month on month, and the battery chip turned from loss to profit: according to the data of the silicon industry branch, the average price of Q4 compact material in 2021 is about 260000 yuan / ton. Due to the small trading volume near the Q4 price peak and the long-term discount factors of some large customers, it is expected that the actual average sales price of Q4 silicon material of the company is slightly lower than the statistics of public quotation. Combined with the change of cost side, considering the month on month increase of Q4 industrial silicon cost and the provision of some annual management expenses, the net profit per ton of Q4 silicon material of the company is expected to be flat month on month. As the price of Q4 silicon wafer has been greatly reduced, and the transmission of silicon wafer price reduction has been delayed and passivated due to the improvement of marginal supply and demand, the company's Q4 battery wafer profit is expected to improve significantly month on month, which is expected to turn losses into profits and contribute a small profit.
In 2022, the profit of silicon material is still rich, and the profit recovery flexibility of battery chips is large: it is expected that the equity output of silicon material of the company in 2022 is expected to reach 170000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 80%. As the bottleneck of photovoltaic supply chain in 2022, the profit of silicon material is expected to be still rich. The profitability of the battery segment reached a historical low in 2021, and the superimposed technical route was switched to n-type. The expansion of perc production slowed down, while the n-type capacity was limited. It is expected that the supply-demand relationship between the upstream and downstream of the battery segment will be significantly improved in 2022, and the operating rate is expected to increase. In particular, the large-scale and efficient perc production capacity may have significant profit recovery elasticity in 2022. At the same time, combined with the company's performance forecast and our calculation, we expect that the company may make a certain provision for asset impairment for the existing old battery production line in Q4 to help the young installation of battery business in 2022.
The completion of destocking + the steady decline of silicon material price promoted the month on month increase of production scheduling in January, and the grid connected data exceeded expectations, forming a strong support for the demand of 2022h1: the recent stabilization of silicon wafer price marks the completion of the industry destocking stage, the price of superimposed silicon material decreased steadily, and the production and delivery of previously delayed orders were resumed one after another, which promoted the obvious month on month increase of component production scheduling in January. In December, the scale of China's grid connection is expected to exceed 25gw. Referring to the situation of previous years and recent bidding information, it is expected that a large number of component replacement needs will be released in the first half of the year. With the launch of delivery of delayed orders in overseas markets and the release of rush loading demand in countries with 331 as the end of the fiscal year, the demand in 2022h1 is strongly supported, and the price of the industrial chain is expected to remain relatively stable.
Profit adjustment and investment suggestions:
According to the latest industry judgment, we raised the price forecast of silicon material in 2022, and updated the company's net profit forecast for 2021-2023e to RMB 83, 143 (+ 38%) and 153 (+ 20%) respectively, corresponding to EPS of RMB 185, 3.18 and 3.39 respectively, and raised the target price to RMB 80 (+ 7%), corresponding to 25 times 2022pe, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation worsened beyond expectations, the scale of industrial expansion exceeded expectations, and the change of technical route exceeded expectations.
