\u3000\u3000 Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) (603026)
Core view
The performance growth in 2021 is expected to exceed 350%, and the performance in the fourth quarter hit a record high. In 2021, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.17-1.25 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 350% - 381%, after deduction of non-profit, it is RMB 1.164-1.244 billion, and the performance in the fourth quarter is about RMB 430-510 million, a record high in the first quarter. The main reasons for the substantial increase in performance include (1) the substantial increase in the production and sales of carbonate products; (2) Continuous optimization of product structure; (3) The main raw material propylene oxide is basically supplied by itself to improve the competitiveness of products; (4) Continue to reduce costs and increase efficiency.
Battery grade solvent continues to boom, and the price profit center is expected to remain high. At present, the price of battery grade solvent remains basically stable, and the market price of DMC remains about 13000 yuan. Benefiting from the growth of high nickel demand and relatively limited supply, the prices of EMC and dec remain above 27000 yuan, and the solvent profit is still considerable. Looking forward to 2022, with the industry's new production capacity such as hexafluoride and additives first put into operation, and the release of solvent capacity is limited, the solvent may become a relatively short board in the electrolyte industry chain. While Shida Quanzhou project and its technical transformation project will be put into operation soon, the company will continue to benefit from the prosperity of the solvent industry.
The new material industry chain continues to extend, and platform companies are gradually taking shape. On the one hand, the company continues to increase the layout of electrolyte industry chain, including electrolyte / solvent / hexafluoride / additives and other links, and implements the in-depth integrated development strategy, so that the competitiveness of electrolyte can be expected in the future; On the other hand, the company horizontally arranges new materials such as silicon-based negative electrode and wet electronic chemicals, and is committed to creating the second and third growth curves other than electrolyte. In the future, the company's profit growth is expected to blossom at many points, and its overall competitiveness will be continuously improved.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We predict that the company's earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.15 yuan, 10.48 yuan and 12.67 yuan respectively (the early forecast value is 7.52 yuan, 10.48 yuan and 11.46 yuan respectively. The forecast value in 2021 will be lowered due to the overhaul carried out by the company in the second half of the year, which will affect the annual shipment volume, and the average solvent price will be slightly lowered, which will affect the overall gross profit; the performance in 2023 will be increased due to the technical transformation of the company, the addition of some solvent capacity, and the slight increase in the long-term solvent central price, which will drive the profit L), with reference to the valuation level of comparable companies in 2022, give Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) 25 times P / E ratio in 2022, the corresponding target price is 262 yuan, and maintain the buy rating!
Risk tips
The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, affecting the sales volume of solvent products;
Upstream raw material price fluctuations affect solvent profitability.
