1. Bulk API: the upstream cost of calcium pantothenate and caffeine is rising, and the price is still in an upward trend. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas shortage in Europe on the supply of VE
There was no significant change in the price of antibiotics this month, and penicillin industrial salt remained at the highest price in history; Calcium pantothenate in vitamins is 172% higher than that at the beginning of the year due to the rise of cost end, the reduction of supply end and the rigidity of demand end. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has triggered the European natural gas energy crisis, which has a great impact on the supply of VE, VA and other European varieties with large production capacity, especially ve; The price of caffeine in antipyretic analgesics has increased by nearly 200% compared with the middle of 2021. At present, the price level is still high; There was no significant change in hormone and other bulk APIs, and the price of dexamethasone remained at a high level of 9750 yuan / kg.
2. Characteristic API: the price of this month remained stable
The price of major cardiovascular drugs has picked up since October 2021, and the price of this month has not changed compared with the previous month; Heparin prices rose slightly this month; The prices of penem, sulbactam and tazobactam APIs remained stable, basically unchanged compared with the previous month.
3. Investment suggestions:
The overall API price has not changed significantly this month, and the upstream prices of calcium pantothenate and caffeine are still strong. It is suggested to pay attention to the subsequent changes in supply pattern and be optimistic about the significant growth of China’s API industry to cdmo for a long time.
1) in the short term, we suggest paying attention to the changes in the supply pattern of calcium pantothenate, caffeine and vitamin E, such as Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) , Cspc Innovation Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300765) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Zhejiang Medicine Co.Ltd(600216) , Brother Enterprises Holding Co.Ltd(002562) , etc;
2) in the medium term, the demand for covid-19 oral drugs caused by the epidemic is a major opportunity to drive the overall volume of API industry. It is expected to contribute profits to API enterprises in 2022, such as Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603538) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) , etc;
3) in the long run, China’s API industry is one of the core directions of China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) new manufacturing. It has the dual growth of upgrading itself and undertaking the transfer of the global industrial chain. The logic of iterative development towards higher-end innovative drug cdmo is clear, and the moat continues to improve. Therefore, we are optimistic that the API industry will usher in rapid development in 2022 and maintain the “recommended” rating of the industry, It is suggested to pay attention to the targets related to the new manufacturing and upgrading of APIs, such as Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , etc.
4. It is suggested to focus on the subject matter of API:
Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Cspc Innovation Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300765) , Brother Enterprises Holding Co.Ltd(002562) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , etc.
Risk tips: API price fluctuation risk, emergency shutdown and rectification risk, industry policy risk.
