The price rise tide is difficult to prevent the high growth of new energy sales, and the penetration rate of personal demand release continues to increase. The Federation of passenger cars released the production and sales data of passenger cars in March on April 11. The sales volume returned to high growth in the first full month after the Spring Festival holiday. Although the industrial chains of Changchun and Shanghai Auto cities were damaged by the epidemic, there was a significant contrast between the sales of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles. Compared with the traditional market with month on month decline, the overall sales volume still exceeded expectations. According to the data, the wholesale sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars reached 455000, an increase of 122.0% year-on-year and 43.5% month on month. From the perspective of separate vehicle enterprises, Byd Company Limited(002594) announced the shutdown of fuel vehicles and shifted its strategy to pure electric hybrid two wheel drive. The sales volume increased by 74% month on month in March, and then won the first place in sales volume. The new forces returned to positive growth, and the price rise in March could not prevent Xiaopeng from returning to the first throne of the new forces. The electric layout of traditional car enterprises has made great efforts, and GAC, great wall and Chang’an have all increased by more than 100% month on month. The new forces of sales are expected to break through the new energy track. We believe that with the promotion of electrification, traditional vehicle enterprises are expected to occupy a certain market share in the new energy vehicle market by virtue of their sales channels and supply chain advantages.
The industrial chain started to pick up. In March, the power battery increased significantly month on month, and the proportion of lithium iron phosphate continued to increase under cost pressure. In March 2022, the loading capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery was 21.4gw, with a year-on-year increase of 138.0% and a month on month increase of 56.6%. After the Spring Festival holiday subsided, the construction of the industrial chain returned to normal, with a significant increase in the same month on month data, and the growth rate was also better than that in the previous three months. In the long run, high-end personal demand will still boost the installed capacity of high nickel ternary. In terms of market share, the leading positions of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Byd Company Limited(002594) are stable, accounting for more than 70% of the market share, and the competitive pressure of the second-line manufacturers is still strong. We are optimistic that the second-line battery manufacturers deeply bound with automobile enterprises (GAC China Innovation Airlines and Volkswagen Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) ) are expected to stand out.
Investment advice. Pay attention to the growth opportunities of lithium battery industry chain brought by the continuous expansion of battery manufacturers’ production capacity under the high climate of new energy vehicle industry, pay attention to the leading manufacturers with obvious cost and economies of scale advantages and integrated upstream and downstream layout in the field of electrolyte and diaphragm with low technical barriers, and pay attention to the leading cathode material manufacturers with deep ternary technical layout of high nickel in cathode materials and obvious advantages in overseas business expansion; Under the clearing of high-cost production capacity, attention is paid to the upstream lithium mining enterprises with obvious cost and resource advantages. Attention is paid to the relevant listed companies with low mining costs and high-quality lithium resources. The Chinese listed companies with relevant resources are expected to continue to expand their market share through the integrated layout of lithium mining to lithium salt production and sales. The listed companies with relevant integrated layout are expected to continue to expand their market share by virtue of price advantages; Pay attention to the second-line battery manufacturers with the layout of the whole industry chain and certain downstream customer cooperation advantages, which are expected to obtain performance and large orders higher than the market growth rate.
Risk tip: the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, the competition in the lithium battery industry is intensified, the raw material price of the industrial chain fluctuates sharply, and the new energy vehicle policy is less than expected
