In March, the total premium of life insurance continued to differentiate year-on-year, and it is expected that the value of new orders will still be under great pressure
In March 2022, the total life insurance premiums of five listed insurance companies accumulated + 0.7% year-on-year (February 2022 + 0.2%), of which: The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) + 18.3%, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) + 4.2%, New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) + 2.4%, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) -2.3%, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) -2.7%. The total monthly premium in March was China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) + 10.1%, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) + 5.6%, The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) + 1.8%, New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) -4.1%, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) -4.2%. The total premiums of life insurance in the three months of life insurance continue to continue the differentiation trend on the year-on-year basis. The China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) theyear-on-year growth is expected to be driven by regulated model products and bancassurance channels. Considering the continuous promotion of transformation, low manpower scale, rebound of epidemic situation in some areas and slowing demand release, we expect that the value of new orders will be under great pressure year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2022, the value of new orders of various insurance enterprises may be in the range of - 20% to - 40% year-on-year.
Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) new single premium is obviously under pressure, and The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) renewal has dragged down the growth of total premium
In the first quarter of 2022, the new single premium of Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) personal business was 43.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 15.7%, which was obviously under pressure. It is expected that it is mainly due to the high base and the decline of manpower scale caused by the switching of the definition of serious diseases in the same period, but the impact of no significant increase in production capacity. At the same time, considering the slow release of the demand for guaranteed products in 2022 and the proportion of high-value products may decline, NBV may be under pressure in the first quarter of 2022, and the year-on-year decrease may be worse than that of the new single premium The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) life insurance and health insurance sector recorded a new single premium of 4.08 billion yuan in March, with a year-on-year increase of 74.9%, mainly driven by PICC Health single payment business. In March, it contributed 1.31 billion yuan of new single payment, with a year-on-year increase of 4953.9%. However, dragged down by the year-on-year renewal premium of PICC Life Insurance, the total premium of The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) personal insurance decreased by 17.0pct to + 1.8%.
The continuing trend of auto insurance boom needs to be observed, and there is still potential for standardized health insurance for low-cost parts
In March 2022, the property insurance premium income of the four listed insurance companies was + 10.1% year-on-year, down 5.6pct from + 15.7% in February. It is expected that it is mainly due to the impact of the epidemic on new car sales and drag on vehicle insurance. The property insurance premiums of each insurance company in March were: Zhongan Online + 14.5% (February + 2.8%), CPIC property insurance + 10.9% (February + 22.5%), PICC Property Insurance + 10.2% (February + 13.4%), Ping An Property Insurance + 9.2% (February + 17.6%). Since March 2022, the epidemic situation in Jilin, Shanghai and other places has rebounded, resulting in certain resistance to offline marketing, production, transportation and delivery. According to the data of the passenger Federation, the retail sales volume of passenger cars in March 2022 was - 10.5% year-on-year, dragging down the auto insurance. The auto insurance premium of PICC Property Insurance in March was + 4.6% year-on-year, down 10.3pct significantly from + 14.9% in February. In addition, according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, Shanghai and Jilin province each account for about 11% of the national production. If the epidemic continues, it may inhibit the sales of new cars and auto insurance in the short term, and the continuation trend of auto insurance boom needs to be observed. The premium income of Ping An Health in the first quarter was + 38.5% year-on-year, and the accident and health insurance premium of PICC Property Insurance in March was + 7.1% year-on-year. The repeated epidemic and the improvement of Internet insurance supervision may be conducive to the sales of low-cost medical insurance.
The pressure situation on the liability side has been confirmed by the data, and attention has been paid to the impact of the epidemic on vehicle insurance and the marginal improvement on the asset side
The pressure on the liability side of life insurance has been confirmed by the data, and the industry NBV may be significantly under pressure in the first quarter of 2022. Industry transformation should not only look up at the road, but also work hard. The improvement of channel production capacity is not achieved overnight. The improvement of the bottom exhibition mode or the key to solve the mismatch between supply and demand of the industry. The prosperity of property insurance is affected by the epidemic situation in some areas, which needs to be observed. At present, life insurance is at the bottom of valuation, and the pessimistic expectation response on the liability side and asset side is relatively sufficient. However, the impact of the epidemic, the macroeconomic boom in 2022 and NBV in the process of transformation are still uncertain year-on-year. In terms of life insurance, we recommend Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , which has a large space for asset side repair, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , which is leading in transformation, and China Property Insurance (H-share) and China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) .
Risk tip: the economic recovery is less than expected; The long-term interest rate is lower than expected; The epidemic has repeatedly affected offline activities.
