Report guide
Open the monetary policy toolbox and cut the reserve requirement in due time + cut the interest rate in a targeted manner (two innovations and two increases in refinancing). We will increase our efforts to stabilize growth, continue to be optimistic about the banking sector, first promote Societe Generale / Ping An + Nanjing / postal savings, and pay attention to the opportunities for state-owned banks to make up for inflation.
Key investment points
Event overview
On April 14, 2022, the people's Bank of China held a press conference on financial statistics for the first quarter of 2022
Core view
Open the monetary policy toolbox and cut the reserve requirement in due time + cut the interest rate in a targeted manner (two innovations and two increases in refinancing). It is confirmed that: ① the source of reasonable profit transfer by banks is the decrease of debt end cost; ② Steady growth continued to increase, and the main line became clearer. Continue to be optimistic about the banking sector, first promote Societe Generale / Ping An + Nanjing / postal savings, pay attention to the opportunities of state-owned banks to make up the rise, and recommend Bank of communications / Agricultural Bank of China / China Construction Bank.
Event comments
1. Monetary policy tools create two innovations and two increases, and the source of banks' reasonable profit transfer is guaranteed
The interest rate of new loans continued to decline. The interest rate of newly issued corporate loans in March 2022 was 4.37%, 8bp lower than that in December of last year. It shows that effective credit is insufficient under the background of economic pressure.
The regulators increased their support for the bank's liability side, and used reserve requirement reduction and refinancing tools to reduce the cost of bank liabilities and achieve the purpose of stable growth and wide credit.
(1) timely use of monetary policy tools such as RRR reduction is conducive to the improvement of bank liability side costs
(2) create two refinances. ① Scientific and technological innovation refinancing tools, with a total amount of 200 billion yuan and an interest rate of 1.75%. The first loan then loan model provides financial support for 60% of the required loan principal. The applicable banks are 21 national financial institutions. ② In the initial stage of the special refinancing of Pratt & Whitney pension, five provinces including Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Henan were selected to carry out the pilot, with a quota of 40 billion yuan and an interest rate of 1.75%. The loan before loan mode provided support for the equivalent principal of the loan that met the requirements. The pilot financial institutions are seven large national banks.
(3) add two refinances. From 2022, the credit loan support plan for Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprises will be included in the management of agricultural and small refinancing, and the refinancing amount of 400 billion yuan can be used on a rolling basis and further increased if necessary. The objects of re loans for agriculture and small loans are local legal person banks.
2. After the real estate policy bottom appears, the real estate financing bottom is expected to appear
① real estate development loans recovered. Compared with 21q4, the national real estate development loans increased by about 150 billion yuan in 22q1. ② The mortgage interest rate has been lowered. Banks in more than 100 cities have lowered the mortgage interest rate independently, with an average range of 20-60 BP. Real estate is an important starting point for steady growth in 2022. The marginal improvement of real estate financing is expected to improve the economy and bank risks.
3. Strong credit demand in manufacturing and Yangtze River Delta
22q1 RMB loans increased by 8.34 trillion yuan over the beginning of the year, an increase of 663.6 billion yuan year-on-year.
(1) from the perspective of key industries: medium and long-term loans in manufacturing industry and inclusive small and micro loans continued to grow at a high rate. At the end of March, medium and long-term loans for manufacturing industry and Pratt & Whitney small and micro loans increased by 29.5% and 24.6% respectively year-on-year, 18.1pc and 13.2pc higher than the growth rate of various loans respectively.
(2) from the perspective of regional structure: the credit supply in the Yangtze River Delta is strong and the impact of the epidemic is limited. The growth rate of loans in all provinces in the Yangtze River Delta is higher than that in the whole country, with a year-on-year increase. At the end of March, the loan growth rate of Shanghai was 0.1pc higher than that of the whole country, and that of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui were 3.5pc, 4.4pc and 2.3pc higher than that of the whole country respectively.
Risk tip: macroeconomic stall, substantial exposure of adverse
