Life insurance has made a good start, showing a sluggish performance, and the epidemic has repeatedly affected customer demand and exhibition industry. 22q1 life insurance premium income: PICC Life Insurance (YoY + 17.9%), CPIC life insurance (YoY + 4.2%), Xinhua (YoY + 2.4%), Ping An Life Insurance (yoy-2.3%) and Guoshou (yoy-2.7%); In March, the monthly premium income of TPL (YoY + 10.1%), Guoshou (YoY + 5.6%), Xinhua (yoy-4.2%), Ping An Life (yoy-4.2%) and PICC Life (yoy-24.6%). New unilateral, affected by the scale reduction of agents and the year-on-year high base, the new single premium of Ping An Shou 22q1 is yoy-14.9%; PICC Life benefited from the single payment, with 22q1 new orders yoy + 45.5%; The high increase in March term payment (YoY + 40.9%) helped the growth of new orders (YoY + 29%), and the renewal (yoy-41.9%) dragged down the performance of premiums.
The epidemic has led to a decline in new car sales and a slowdown in the growth of property insurance premiums. 22q1 accumulated premium income of property insurance taibaocai (YoY + 13.8%), PICC Finance (YoY + 12.2%) and Ping An Finance (YoY + 10.3%); In March, the monthly premium income of Taibao finance / PICC finance / Ping An finance yoy + 10.9% / + 10.2% / + 9.2%, with a month on month growth rate of - 11.6pcts / - 3.2pcts / - 8.8pcts. 1) The epidemic affected the sales of new cars, and the growth of auto insurance premiums slowed down: 22q1 auto insurance premiums PICC (YoY + 10.9%) and Ping An Finance (YoY + 10.4%). Affected by the epidemic, new car sales yoy-11.7% in March, and the decline in new car sales slowed down the growth of the number of insured vehicles and independent pricing coefficient. The growth rate of PICC finance's auto insurance premium in March fell to 4.6% (the previous value was 14.9%). 2) Non vehicle growth rate is relatively stable: 22q1 non vehicle premium PICC Finance (YoY + 13.2%) and Ping An Finance (YoY + 10.2%), Italian health insurance is still the main source of increment, and PICC finance / Ping An finance Italian health insurance premium yoy + 11.7% / + 38.5%. In March, the monthly premium of PICC non auto insurance was yoy + 13.7%, the growth rate of credit guarantee insurance (YoY + 113.3%) and agricultural insurance (YoY + 45.9%) was high.
Opportunities and challenges coexist. It is suggested to pay attention to the signs of marginal improvement at the asset end of insurance enterprises. 1) The long-term interest rate fluctuated at a low level + the equity market fluctuated downward, and the investment side of insurance enterprises faced challenges: as of April 14, the yield to maturity of 10-year Treasury bonds was 2.77%, down from - 3bps in early March; Compared with the end of the previous year, the cumulative decline of CSI 300 reached 15.2%. The downward interest rate and market fluctuations put pressure on the investment side of insurance enterprises. 2) Marginal improvement of the real estate industry + re mention of supervision to encourage insurance capital to allocate equity assets, forming support for the investment side: since March, the relaxation of policies in the real estate industry has increased, and more than 100 city banks across the country have reduced mortgage interest rates (20-60bps); On April 11, the CSRC and other three departments again proposed to encourage insurance and other institutions to allocate additional equity assets. With the gradual recovery of the follow-up epidemic, the equity market may usher in valuation repair, which is expected to support the investment side of insurance enterprises.
In the short term, we judge that the pressure caused by the epidemic on the liability side will continue, and we suggest paying attention to the marginal signs of improvement on the asset side. 1) In terms of life insurance: as an unnecessary consumer goods, insurance is expected to weaken market demand under the influence of the epidemic, hinder the offline exhibition of agents, affect the sales of high-value products, or have a certain impact on personnel retention; 2) Property insurance: the Shanghai epidemic has a great impact on the automobile industry chain. The weak production and sales of new cars is expected to continue to affect the premium income of automobile insurance in April. With the recovery of the epidemic, the growth rate of automobile insurance premium is expected to rise. At present, the industry is at a low historical valuation and has a high safety margin. It is recommended to pay attention to Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China Property Insurance and AIA.
Risk tips: policy risk, interest rate risk, market fluctuation risk and repeated epidemic.
