Core view
As a pillar industry in China, the supply chain coordination platform of the Ministry of industry and information technology has been put on line and all localities have resumed work in an orderly manner. This round of epidemic started in March. Guangdong, Shanghai and Jilin, as the core areas of China’s automobile industry, are affected by the epidemic to varying degrees. In order to solve the problems caused by the “smooth supply chain of automobile industry”, the Ministry of automobile industry feedback and supply chain coordination in a timely manner.
Shanghai, Guangdong and Jilin are the core areas of China’s automobile industry. In 2020, the automobile output of the three regions was 8.44 million, accounting for 33% of China’s total automobile output; In 2020, the sales volume of passenger cars in the three regions was 2.93 million, accounting for 15% of the total sales volume of cars in China. At the level of listed enterprises, there are about 23 independent parts enterprises in the areas affected by the epidemic, including 17 in Shanghai, 4 in Changchun and 2 in Guangzhou. There are 21 foreign-funded parts enterprises in the affected areas, including Bosch, Yazaki, Denso, Jtekt, ZF, Magna, Virginia, etc., supporting customers to design Volkswagen, GM, Ford, SAIC, FAW, Toyota, Mercedes Benz, BMW, etc.
Analysis of production capacity and industrial chain in Shanghai, Guangzhou and Jilin: according to the data of EPSO, the production capacity of Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) 2021 will be 10.13 million, of which the production capacity in Shanghai will be 1.96 million, accounting for about 19% of the total production capacity Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) 2021 production capacity is 2.62 million, of which the production capacity in Guangzhou is 1.91 million, accounting for about 73% of the total production capacity; The production capacity of FAW Group in 2021 is 4.42 million, of which the production capacity of Jilin + Guangzhou is 1.7 million, accounting for about 38% of the total production capacity; Tesla: the capacity of Chinese factories is 450000, all in Shanghai. The planned production capacity of Weilai automobile is 240000, and there is no production capacity in the areas affected by the epidemic. Xiaopeng automobile will have a production capacity of 300000 vehicles in 2021, of which 100000 will be in Guangzhou.
Investment suggestion: we believe that the price trend of raw materials and the impact of the epidemic are difficult to predict in the short term, but the trend of electrification and intelligent upgrading of the automotive industry remains unchanged, which is still the main logic of the next 5-10 dimensions. Some parts fall to a reasonable valuation level, and the medium and long-term configuration value is prominent. We recommend two main lines: the rise of independent brands and the intelligent upgrading of automobile electrification. Main line 1: in 2021, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles exceeded 15%, and the key point entered the accelerated penetration. Under the background of the bottom support of three electricity technology, the logic of vehicle production changed. The independent brand surpassed the joint venture in terms of organizational structure, supply chain perfection and business model, and is optimistic about the industrial chain investment opportunities brought by the rise of independent brands for a long time. Main line 2: the core of vehicle electrification is the application of energy flow. With the superposition of multiple factors such as policy, technology and Tesla, new energy vehicles have entered the stage of high-quality development, the product power of demand driven models has been improved, and the technical trend has been upgraded to lithium iron phosphate, 4680 cylinder, multi-in-one electric drive system, vehicle platform high voltage and other multidimensional upgrades. Mainline 3: the core of automotive intelligence is the application of data flow. Incremental components include: acquisition end – laser radar, millimeter wave radar, camera and other sensors, transmission end – high-speed connector, computing end – domain controller, application end – air suspension, brake by wire and steering, interaction end – HUD, interactive lights, central control instrument, sky glass, vehicle borne acoustics, etc.
Risk tip: Auto chip capacity risk, sales volume downside risk, traditional enterprise reform risk.
