Summary of the annual report: as of April 11, the net profit of A-share listed banks that have published the annual report achieved a year-on-year growth of 13.3% in 2021, and the revenue increased by 8.2% year-on-year. The improvement of asset quality superimposed the influence of 2020 base, improved profitability and increased roe year-on-year. The profit growth of urban commercial banks continued to lead the sector. The recent epidemic has exacerbated economic pressure. The national Standing Committee has made it clear that the policy objectives for 2022 will not be shaken, and the active stability maintenance policy is expected to continue to be implemented until the effectiveness of steady growth appears. In the middle and late April, it entered the disclosure period of the first quarterly report of listed banks, and actively paid attention to the market of the first quarterly report.
Reiterated the view that steady growth will continue to catalyze and continue to be optimistic about bank stocks. Individual stocks continue to recommend high-quality urban rural commercial bank: Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) etc., and core targets continue to recommend: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) . When the market is weak, pay attention to the value of undervalued targets.
Provision remains the largest positive contributor to performance
From the perspective of the decomposition of the driving factors of the net profit growth of listed banks, the annual provision has made a positive contribution of 8.8 percentage points to the performance, which is the largest positive contributor to the profit growth; The second is the scale, with a positive contribution of 6.8 percentage points; Fee income and other non interest income are contributing 1.9 and 5.7 percentage points respectively; The negative contribution of interest margin is 6.3 percentage points; The negative contribution of business and management fees and taxes is 4.3% and 0.3%.
Interest margin: the annual interest margin decreased year-on-year, and the margin stabilized in the second half of the year
In 2021, the interest margin of listed banks decreased by 7bp to 2.07% year-on-year in 2020, of which the asset side yield decreased by 10bp to 3.79% and the liability side cost rate decreased by 1bp to 1.86%. However, the interest rate spread has stabilized since the second half of the year, and the absolute level of the annual interest rate spread is the same as that in the first half of the year. We are concerned about the marginal upward trend of debt side cost rate in the second half of the year, which is mainly due to the pressure of holding deposits; On the asset side, under the influence of the epidemic, the effective credit demand is weakened, the asset side pricing is under pressure, and the interest margin is expected to continue to decline slightly.
Scale: the scale expansion is accelerated, and the deposit growth is relatively weak
The year-on-year growth rate of interest bearing assets of listed banks in the fourth quarter increased by 1 percentage point to 8.3% compared with the third quarter, and the proportion of loans continued to increase to 59%; Among the loans, the proportion of retail loans increased compared with that in 2020, and the proportion of bills increased in the second half of the year, which may be related to the wide credit impulse, reduced risk appetite and insufficient satisfactory credit demand in the fourth quarter of last year. On the liability side, the annual deposit growth slowed down compared with that in 2020. In order to support the steady expansion of the asset side, the overall market-oriented liabilities of listed banks grew faster than deposits on a year-on-year basis.
Asset quality: indicators continue to improve, pay attention to the disturbance of the epidemic situation and the effectiveness of active policies
The non-performing rate of listed banks maintained a downward trend, with the year-end value down 5bp to 1.33% month on month in the third quarter; The proportion of concerned loans and overdue rate decreased by 4bp to 1.73% and 1.23% compared with the end of the second quarter. We estimate that the annualized NPL generation rate of listed banks in 2021 will decline by 39bp to 0.86% compared with 2020. Since 2022, the active policy of maintaining stability of real estate has been continuously introduced, which is conducive to the stability of bank fundamentals. At the same time, we still need to pay attention to the effectiveness of stability maintenance policies and the possible disturbance caused by the recent epidemic. With the improvement of asset quality, although the provision provision of banks decreased in the fourth quarter, the provision coverage increased by 7 percentage points to 239% month on month compared with the third quarter; The loan allocation ratio decreased 3bp to 3.18% month on month in the third quarter.
Risk tip: the economic downturn leads to the deterioration of asset quality exceeding expectations and financial supervision exceeding expectations.
