Upstream policies focus on the construction of raw materials and mineral resources guarantee system, and downstream vehicle enterprises develop at a high speed
The policy focuses on strengthening the collaborative development of upstream and downstream enterprises, cracking down on hoarding and profiteering, reducing costs and improving efficiency through technological diversification and high-end talent training. The industry needs relevant departments to build a guarantee system for raw materials and mineral resources, use technological upgrading to drive down costs, and orderly promote the healthy development of the industry.
With the rapid development of downstream vehicle enterprises, the power technology path tends to be diversified. With the gradual increase of TOC end proportion in the new energy vehicle industry, the personal consumption market has been fully stimulated, and the new energy vehicle market will still maintain a high growth rate in the next few years. The development of the industry has fully driven China’s independent brands such as Byd Company Limited(002594) , gac-e’an, and the new forces of car making such as Xiaopeng, ideal, rapid start-up and enhanced R & D strength. At the same time, the power technology route in the field of complete vehicles shows an obvious diversification trend, which is conducive to matching the different needs of consumers.
From the perspective of investment rhythm, the stage with the greatest contradiction between supply and demand is about to pass, and the second quarter is the rebound window period; As the demand side is better, the supply side of the industrial chain will be released faster in the second half of the year, and the growth environment will be better. We believe that we should pay attention to investment opportunities in three directions: (a) core growth: invest according to the level of barriers (batteries, lithium resources, diaphragms, negative electrodes, etc.), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) and other companies benefit; (b) Post cycle: companies such as Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) and others benefit from flexible investment according to the growth rate, such as energy storage, power exchange and other sectors; (c) New technology: invest according to the penetration rate, such as 4680, flat wire, etc. Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) and other companies benefit.
The comprehensive innovation of battery material technology supports the development of batteries in the direction of high specific energy and high safety
In order to meet the general development direction of high specific energy of battery, comprehensive technological innovation has been carried out in various material links such as electrolyte, anode and cathode materials and cell. Electrolyte changes from liquid state to solid state, and seeks materials that are not easy to burn, low cost, strong water stability and air stability; In terms of cathode materials, the choice of precursor raw materials tends to be diversified, and high nickel and lithium rich manganese based cathode with higher specific energy will become the development direction. In addition, low cobalt cathode provides more possibilities for realizing low cost and high stability; In terms of negative electrode materials, the production and power supply are gradually turning to natural resources. Silicon containing negative electrode provides enough space for technology exploration. In addition, non negative metal lithium technology may become a major development direction. In terms of electric core, large cylindrical electric core meeting the requirements of high specific energy, high consistency and high safety will become the mainstream development trend. At the same time, the high-efficiency group technology continuously improves the specific energy of the battery system, and the non thermal diffusion technology greatly improves the safety of new energy vehicles and helps the comprehensive electrification process.
New technologies such as battery recycling and power exchange have been vigorously developed to promote the implementation of the “double carbon” goal
After recycling, battery materials can be used for manufacturing and reuse, accelerate the balance between supply and demand of resources and reduce the demand for earth resources. Standardized batteries such as large cylindrical batteries are more convenient for recycling. At present, the most respected is physical recycling, which can not only reduce carbon emissions, but also reduce other pollutants. At the same time, new technologies such as ultrasonic recycling and plasma recycling are also emerging. In terms of power change, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) launched evogo combined power change matching quick change station to reduce consumers’ cost, residual value and charging anxiety, which has a wide range of application scenarios. In addition, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) proposed that the quick change station matching chocolate power change block has more advantages. At present, the heavy card is still the main application scenario for power exchange, and the economy of oil and electricity is prominent. The Trinity operation mode of power exchange heavy card + battery bank + power exchange station can realize the significant saving of one-time purchase cost of logistics cargo owners and the shared circulation of batteries, Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) etc.
Risk warning: policy risk; Upstream industrial chain risk; Downstream customer sales risk.
