\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 126 National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) )
China's semiconductor silicon chip leader leads the domestic substitution of 12 inch silicon chips: the company is the leader of China's semiconductor silicon chips. Its products are mainly 8-inch and 12 inch silicon chips. It has technically realized the full coverage and large-scale sales of logic process and 3D storage process of 14 nm and above of 12 inch silicon chips, and its customers cover the first-line mainstream wafer factories outside China. With the rapid increase of 12 inch production capacity, the proportion in revenue continued to increase, and the profitability showed a significant improvement trend. In terms of SOI silicon wafer, the company has mastered SIMOX, bonding, simbond and other advanced manufacturing technologies with independent intellectual property rights, and mastered smartcuttm manufacturing technology through authorization. At present, the company's 8-inch and below SOI wafers are running stably, and it is expected to break the overseas monopoly by increasing the investment of 12 inch SOI wafers.
Increase and expand the production of 12 inch silicon wafers and invest in SOI silicon wafer R & D: the company's 12 inch silicon wafer production capacity continues to increase, from 100000 Wafers / month in 2018 to 250000 Wafers / month in 2021h1; By the end of 2021, the production line construction of 300000 pieces / month has been completed. The company continues to expand the production capacity of 300000 pieces / month through fixed increase. This expansion mainly focuses on the production capacity expansion of 12 inch semiconductor silicon wafer for 20-14nm process applications, and takes into account the production capacity of 12 inch semiconductor silicon wafer for 10nm and below process applications. It is expected to reach Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) pieces / month in 2024. In addition, through this fixed increase, the company will also invest in the research and development of 12 inch SOI silicon wafers. At present, 12 inch SOI silicon wafers are basically monopolized overseas. After the completion of the project, the company will establish a supply capacity of 4 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 2 inch SOI silicon wafers / year.
The high boom in semiconductors has driven up the demand for silicon wafers, and China's share is expected to continue to increase: silicon wafers are the largest semiconductor materials, accounting for 35% of wafer manufacturing materials in 2020. Driven by the demand for 5g, Internet of things, automotive electronics and cloud computing, the semiconductor boom continues to rise, and the semiconductor silicon wafer market continues to improve. According to semi statistics, from 2015 to 2021, the global semiconductor silicon wafer market grew from US $7.5 billion to US $14 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of about 11%. In terms of shipment area, according to semi statistics and prediction, the global silicon wafer shipment volume in 2021 will be 14.2 billion square inches, an increase of 14.5% over last year. It is expected that the shipment volume in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 will increase by 6.4% / 4.6% / 2.9% to 148.96/155.81/16.033 billion square inches. From the Chinese mainland market, the market of semiconductor silicon wafer in China in 2020 was 1 billion 300 million US dollars, and the composite growth rate of 20162020 was 29.17%, higher than the global average. Chinese mainland China's semiconductor production capacity will continue to increase, and the silicon wafer industry will expand rapidly in Chinese mainland.
Overseas giants monopolize the silicon market for a long time. The prospect of domestic substitution can be expected: at present, most of the semiconductor silicon wafers are monopolized by overseas manufacturers. According to IC Insights data, in 2020, Japan's Xinyue chemistry, Japan's Sheng Gao (SUMCO), China Taiwan's global wafer, Germany's Siltronic and South Korea's SK Siltron account for more than 85% of the total market share. Semiconductor silicon wafers in mainland China started late and the localization rate is low. In particular, almost all 12 inch silicon wafers depend on imports. At present, some Chinese manufacturers, such as Shanghai silicon, have the domestic substitution ability of 12 inch silicon wafers, which has been verified by China's mainstream wafer factories. The production capacity is released rapidly and the domestic substitution is accelerated.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.436 billion yuan, 4.760 billion yuan and 6.489 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 232 million yuan, 372 million yuan and 503 million yuan respectively. Refer to the average pb6 of Chinese peers in Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) , Zhejiang Mtcn Technology Co.Ltd(003026) , Thinkon Semiconductor Jinzhou Corp(688233) 202203 times, giving the company PB6.5% in 202203x valuation, corresponding to the target price of 33.89 yuan, covered for the first time, and given the "Buy-A" investment rating.
Risk warning: market competition intensifies; Downstream demand attenuation; Technology research and development fails to meet expectations; The raised investment project did not meet expectations.
