\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 630 Circuit Fabology Microelectronics Equipment Co.Ltd(688630) )
Key investment points
Circuit Fabology Microelectronics Equipment Co.Ltd(688630) is a leading enterprise of laser direct writing lithography in China, raising funds to invest in R & D and industrialization projects Circuit Fabology Microelectronics Equipment Co.Ltd(688630) was founded in 2015, focusing on the R & D and production of direct imaging equipment and direct writing lithography equipment with micro nano direct writing lithography as the core technology. The company's core technical team has focused on technology development in related fields for more than 10 years. At present, the company's main products are PCB direct imaging equipment and automatic line system (PCB series), pan semiconductor direct writing lithography equipment and automatic line system (Pan semiconductor Series). The company was listed on the science and innovation board in 2021, raising a total of 420 million yuan to invest in R & D and industrialization projects, of which 210 million yuan was invested in the PCB field, with a new production capacity of 200 units / year after reaching the production capacity; The investment of wafer level packaging is 60 million yuan, and the new production capacity is 6 sets / year.
The demand for medium and high-end PCB drives the growth of the market scale of PCB direct imaging equipment, and the company takes advantage of localization to add growth momentum. In the field of PCB manufacturing, direct imaging (LDI) equipment can overcome the technical bottleneck of traditional exposure equipment, and has the advantages of simplifying process, improving automation level and reducing material cost. At present, it has become the mainstream technical scheme in the manufacturing of medium and high-end PCB products such as multilayer board, HDI board, flexible board and IC carrier board. In the field of single / double-sided board, it is also expected to gradually penetrate with the improvement of cost performance. According to the current announcements of PCB manufacturers, most of the new production lines have 100% used LDI equipment. According to our calculation, the market scale of PCB exposure equipment is expected to reach 8.4 billion yuan in 2025 and 11% CAGR in 20202025. The chip and integration of components has brought about the continuous high-end PCB product structure and the continuous improvement of manufacturing process. It is expected that the growth rate of LDI equipment is higher than that of the overall exposure machine market. The company's PCB equipment has realized 6 μ m-75 μ M process is fully covered. In terms of product application scope and capacity efficiency, the company has reached the leading level in China and the international mainstream level. In the future, it is expected to continue to increase market share with local advantages such as product performance, cost performance and service capability under the background of strong demand for domestic equipment.
Pan semiconductor direct write lithography equipment is expected to become a new profit point. In the pan semiconductor field, the application fields of direct writing lithography and projection lithography are quite different. Direct writing lithography is mainly used in mask manufacturing, IC packaging, FPD Manufacturing and some integrated circuit manufacturing. We estimate that the global market scale of direct writing lithography machine for mask manufacturing in 2020 is about 5.7 billion yuan, which is expected to reach 9.8 billion yuan in 2025 and 1.1% CAGR in 20202025. Downstream manufacturing sector, Chinese mainland manufacturers and capital expenditures continue to increase, creating a huge demand market for equipment. The company has made active layout in the field of Pan semiconductor. At present, it continues to make breakthroughs in technology, products and customers, and is expected to become a new profit growth point in the future.
Equity incentive binds core employees and unlocks conditions to show performance confidence. The company issued the 2022 incentive plan (Draft), which plans to grant 1.087 million restricted shares to no more than 212 core employees at a price of 26.17 yuan, covering 59% of the total number of employees at the end of 21. The incentive conditions are the growth of revenue and net profit, and the target is high, which shows the company's confidence in long-term performance.
Investment advice
As a leading manufacturer of direct write lithography, the company continues to benefit from the high growth of its PCB equipment market. The downstream PCB structure is upgraded, and local manufacturers in mainland China actively invest in expanding production to improve the company's equipment demand. The company actively distributes the pan semiconductor field. With the continuous promotion of equipment R & D and verification, it is expected to become a new profit growth point of the company. With the implementation of the company's early-stage raised investment projects, the company's performance is expected to improve significantly. We expect the company to achieve revenue of 492 / 800 / 1202 million yuan and net profit of 108 / 160 / 239 million yuan in 2021 / 2022 / 2023. The PE corresponding to the market value on April 14 is 58.47/39.69/26.69x respectively, which is lower than that of comparable companies. For the first time, give the company a "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the downstream production expansion progress is less than expected, the equipment R & D is less than expected, and the supply of core parts is at risk
