\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 019 Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) )
Event: Recently, the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, it realized an operating revenue of 4.409 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.36%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 278 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 71.25%. The year-on-year decline was mainly due to the decline in the price of calcium pantothenate in 2021 and the inclusion of some cooperative products in centralized mining. If the impact of the decline in the price of calcium pantothenate and centralized mining is deducted, the operating revenue will be 3.033 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.99%.
F-627 China's listing application has been accepted, and the innovative drug research project is progressing smoothly
The company actively promotes the clinical and listing application of several research projects. FDA has completed the technical review of f-627. At present, due to the obstruction of the epidemic, on-site verification cannot be carried out. We expect that f-627 can be successfully listed in the United States after the epidemic eases. At the same time, the process of f-627 global commercialization cooperation is progressing smoothly. The company has reached exclusive distribution cooperation of f-627 in China, Greece, Cyprus and Germany with Zhengda Tianqing, kalteq and apogepha respectively, and may negotiate with apogepha for cooperation in other high-value regions of the EU. F-652 is a new target innovative drug. It has carried out five indications in China and the United States: acute graft-versus-host disease, alcoholic hepatitis, chronic acute liver failure, acute pancreatitis and covid-19 pneumonia. A single dose incremental climbing test has been completed all over the world. F-899 applied for ind in March 2021 and obtained the clinical trial approval. Now the phase I clinical trial is progressing smoothly and the research work of five dose groups has been completed.
Calcium pantothenate ushered in price rise, and the API business returned to growth
In 2021, the price of calcium pantothenate, the main product of the company's API, was at a low level, mainly due to covid-19 epidemic, African swine fever and other factors, and the continuous release of new production capacity, resulting in the overall market supply exceeding demand. During the reporting period, the revenue of API decreased by 39.44% year-on-year, and the sales revenue of vitamin B5 series products reached 470 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 61.37%. Since 2022, the price of calcium pantothenate has risen rapidly due to the rise of upstream raw material prices and dual control of energy consumption. According to Boya Hexun, the quotation is 360 yuan / kg, which is nearly four times higher than the low price of 73.5 yuan / kg in 2021. The price of calcium pantothenate returns to a higher level, which is expected to drive the company's profit to increase significantly.
The benefits of the implementation of the strategy are prominent, and the performance of its own products of traditional Chinese medicine has increased significantly
In order to adapt to the new normal of centralized procurement, the national pharmaceutical division of the company continues to optimize the product structure and improve the sales revenue of its own products of traditional Chinese medicine led by "531" core products. The company has 13 exclusive traditional Chinese medicine medical insurance products, including compound Huangdai tablets, dehumidification and antipruritic ointment, and 1 compound Yinhua Jiedu Granule, a national secondary protected variety of traditional Chinese medicine. In 2021, the operating revenue of Sinopharm business division reached 2.293 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.48%, mainly due to the centralized purchase of some cooperative products, resulting in a decrease of 43.05% in the revenue of medical services; Excluding the impact of centralized mining, the operating revenue was 1.335 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.18%. Among them, the sales revenue of self owned products was nearly 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.13%.
Profit forecast and investment rating
Considering that the company's approval progress of innovative drugs is affected by the epidemic, we will reduce the revenue from RMB 6.862 and 8.609 billion to RMB 5.268 and 5.490 billion in 2022 and 2023, and the net profit from RMB 1.041 and 1.081 billion to RMB 820 and 874 million. We predict that the revenue of the company in 2024 will be 6.044 billion yuan and the net profit will be 985 million yuan. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the failure of f-627 to be approved for listing risks, research and development risks, and the risk of drug sales falling short of expectations
