\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 129 Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) )
Event: the company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022. In 2022q1, it is expected to realize an operating revenue of 12.8 ~ 13.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 71.52% ~ 84.92%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.26 ~ 1.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 132.71% ~ 151.18%.
The production and sales of 210 silicon wafers maintained a high growth, and the product structure continued to upgrade. By the end of 2021, the company's total silicon wafer production capacity reached 88gw, of which 210 products accounted for 74%; In 2022q1, the company's Yinchuan phase VI production capacity was gradually released, the proportion of 210 product shipments continued to increase, and the overall profitability also continued to improve; In the future, with the further release of the company's Ningxia phase VI production capacity and the smooth production of DW chip production capacity around the company, the company's total silicon chip production capacity is expected to increase to 150gw in 2024, of which 210 products account for 85 ~ 90%.
The price of silicon material in 2022q1 remains at a high level. The company's monthly production of a single unit continues to increase through process progress and technical improvement in the crystal link. In the chip link, the number of pieces per kilogram is improved through the process improvement of thin line and thin sheet. Combined with good supply chain system management and the differentiation and cost advantage of 210 products, the company still ensures the profitability of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) silicon wafer under the background of high raw material cost.
The scale of semiconductor production capacity continued to increase, layout reserves and global business expansion. By the end of 2021, the company has achieved a monthly production capacity of 8-inch 700000 pieces and 12-inch 170000 pieces. In 2022q1, the shipment volume of 8-12 inch polished wafer and epitaxial wafer of the company accelerated, the product supply capacity was improved, and the production and sales scale increased significantly year-on-year. In addition, taking advantage of the rapid increment of the semiconductor market and taking advantage of its technology and product advantages, the company signed long-term strategic cooperation agreements with a number of international chip manufacturers, promoted cooperation with zhanxie customers and laid a customer foundation for global business expansion.
The increase of major shareholders' holdings shows the company's confidence, and industry 4.0 helps improve the company's efficiency and product quality. From January 11 to April 12, the company's largest shareholder Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) (Tianjin) increased 350267 million shares of the company's shares through centralized bidding, accounting for 1.08% of the company's total share capital. Since Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) became the largest shareholder of the company, it has brought significant changes to the company at the level of fine management. This shareholding increase also reflects its long-term confidence in the future development of the company; With the application and upgrading of industry 4.0 in the whole process of production, the company's operation efficiency, product quality, cost control and other aspects have been significantly improved.
Maintain the "buy" rating: according to the company's 2021 performance express, we slightly adjust the 21-year profit forecast and maintain the 22 / 23 year profit forecast. It is expected that the company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 4.020/58.53/7.203 billion in 21-23 years (down 3% / maintain / maintain), the corresponding EPS are RMB 1.24/1.81/2.23 respectively, and the current share price is 24 times the corresponding PE in 22 years. The technological innovation product G12 silicon wafer launched by the company is ahead of the industry, which helps the company improve the profitability of photovoltaic silicon wafer; At the same time, after a further breakthrough in the scientific and technological attribute of semiconductor silicon wafer, the company's valuation is expected to continue to improve under the triple factors of policy dividend, domestic substitution and prosperity improvement of the semiconductor industry; After the addition of TCL, a new chapter of hybrid reform was officially opened. Industry 4.0 will continue to help improve the company's efficiency and product quality, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: 210 silicon wafer shipment and profit are lower than expected; The production capacity and sales of semiconductor silicon wafers were lower than expected.
