\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 689 Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) )
Event overview
The company released its 2021 annual report: in 2021, it achieved a revenue of 11.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.0%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 1.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.9%, and deducted a net profit not attributable to the parent of 970 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.9%. Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 3.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.0%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 260 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 240 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%.
Analysis and judgment:
Rapid growth of revenue and full flowering of products
In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 11.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 76.0%, of which 2021q4 revenue was 3.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 66.0% and a month on month increase of + 25.2%. We judge that the rapid growth of revenue mainly benefited from the large volume of supporting projects for new energy customers at home and abroad, such as Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) , weixiaoli and rivian. By product, including: 1) shock absorber: the revenue in 2021 was 3.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 30.7%, accounting for 29.2%; 2) Interior functional parts: the revenue in 2021 was 3.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 60.9%, and the corresponding revenue accounted for 31.2%; 3) Lightweight chassis system: the revenue in 2021 was 2.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 97.2%, accounting for 15.4% of the corresponding revenue; 4) Automotive electronics: the revenue in 2021 was 180 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.2%, and the corresponding revenue accounted for 1.6%; 5) Thermal management system: the revenue in 2021 is 1.28 billion yuan, with a net increment, accounting for 11.2%. The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was slightly lower than that of revenue, mainly due to the decline of gross profit margin caused by the rise in the price of raw materials. The company actively embraced new energy, continuously expanded the product line related to electric intelligence, actively expanded the global intelligent electric customer base and explored tier0 Level 5 supporting mode, showing a trend of simultaneous increase in volume and price, and we expect the performance to continue to grow at a high rate.
The scale effect of short-term pressure on gross profit margin appears
The gross profit margin of the company in 2021 was 19.9%, with a year-on-year rate of -2.8pct, of which the gross profit margin in 2021q4 was 17.6%, with a year-on-year rate of + 1.5pct and a month on month rate of -3.6pct. We judged that it was mainly affected by the rise in the price of raw materials and the fluctuation of exchange rate. By product: 1) shock absorber: the gross profit margin in 2021 was 23.8%, year-on-year -2.7pct, which was mainly affected by the fluctuation of rubber price; 2) Interior functional parts: the gross profit margin in 2021 was 17.3%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.7pct, which was mainly affected by the fluctuation of oil price, with a small decrease, mainly due to the obvious increase of capacity utilization; 3) Lightweight chassis system: the gross profit margin in 2021 was 17.7%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.4pct. Affected by the fluctuation of aluminum price, the improvement against the trend mainly benefited from the improvement of capacity utilization; 4) Automotive electronics: the gross profit margin in 2021 was 26.3%, year-on-year -2.2pct; 5) Thermal management system: the gross profit margin in 2021 is 17.8%. We judge that it is expected to increase with the increase of capacity utilization and the self-made rate of core components.
In terms of expenses, the sales expense rate, management expense rate, R & D expense rate and financial expense rate in 2021 were 1.4%, 2.6%, 4.4% and 0.3% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.5pct, – 1.0pct, – 1.1pct and – 0.4pct, highlighting the scale effect.
Shuangwei Qiqu Jianzhi global auto parts top
Customer +: strategically bind Tesla and the new forces of car manufacturing to enter the global supply system. The company has followed the growth of GM and Geely. At present, Tesla is strategically bound to start a new round of growth. At the same time, it has entered the global supply systems such as Ford, FCA, Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen, Audi, Honda and Toyota. In line with the change of Electric Intelligence in the industry, the company actively cooperates with rivian, Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal and other new forces of head car manufacturing to explore tier0 Level 5 cooperation mode to provide customers with synchronous R & D and supply services of the whole product line.
Product +: eight product lines to build a platform enterprise. While maintaining China’s leading position in the two traditional businesses of vehicle NVH damping system and vehicle acoustic package, the company has prospectively arranged the three core businesses of intelligent driving system, thermal management system and lightweight chassis system, and added air suspension system, integrated body lightweight and intelligent cabin components. It is expected that the total supporting value of single vehicle of the whole product line is expected to reach more than 30000 yuan. The company has comprehensively arranged electric intelligence and become a platform company.
Investment advice
The company is the target of high performance elasticity of Tesla industrial chain and the most beneficial target of Geely industrial chain. With the industry-leading ability of customer expansion and product expansion, the company is expected to rise and become the leader of independent parts under the reform of electric intelligence. In view of the growth of the company’s performance repair and lightweight, intelligent driving system and thermal management system with key customers such as Tesla and Geely, and in combination with the impact of the epidemic and lack of core, the profit forecast is adjusted: it is estimated that the revenue in 20222023 will be adjusted from 17.25/22.85 billion yuan to 17.12/22.66 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company from 18.2/2.45 billion yuan to 1.73/2.4 billion yuan, and EPS from 1.65/2.22 yuan to 1.57/2.17 yuan, In 2024, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 30.59 billion yuan and 3.36 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS was 3.05 yuan, corresponding to pe31 / 23 / 16 times of the closing price of 49.0 yuan on April 14, 2022, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Tesla’s sales volume is lower than expected; Geely’s sales volume recovered less than expected; Increased competition; Rising raw material costs, etc.
