\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 01 Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the performance express of 2021 and the performance forecast of the first quarter report of 2022. In 2021, the operating revenue reached 3.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 89.1%. In the first quarter of 2022, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 250300 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 894% - 1093%.
Core products have recovered significantly and are optimistic about the rapid growth of annual performance. In terms of core products: 1) quadruple vaccine, the channel inventory has been digested to a healthy level in 2021. We expect the sales volume of 2022q1 to be about 800000. Considering that the impact of covid-19 vaccination on conventional vaccination will be greatly reduced this year, we judge that the demand side of quadruple vaccine will be significantly recovered. We expect that quadruple vaccine is expected to achieve a rapid and large-scale trend in 2022, and the sales volume is expected to be 3.5-4 million. 2) Considering that the 13 valent pneumonia vaccine is still in the initial stage of market promotion, we expect to sell 35 Tunghsu Azure Renewable Energy Co.Ltd(000040) 0000 units in 2022q1. Considering the market demand of 13 valent pneumonia vaccine, we judge that the sales of 13 valent pneumonia vaccine in the whole year is expected to increase quarter by quarter, and we expect that the sales of 13 valent pneumonia vaccine in 2022 is expected to reach 3.5-4 million units. In addition, other conventional vaccines such as 23 valent pneumonia, Hib vaccine and 60ug hepatitis B vaccine will be significantly restored in 2022. In terms of covid-19 vaccine, the third vaccination of inactivated covid-19 vaccine is being carried out, which will contribute to some performance. Adenovirus vector vaccine is expected to improve the export performance in the future.
The R & D pipeline has been continuously promoted. Through self research and foreign cooperation, the company has built the richest vaccine product echelon in China. 1) Human diploid rabies vaccine: waiting for on-site inspection, expected to be approved in early 2023; 2) Lyophilized varicella vaccine: at the stage of receiving the clinical summary report, the production will be reported soon, and it is expected to be approved in 2023. In addition, pentavalent vaccine and oral live attenuated rotavirus vaccine have obtained clinical approval.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. Considering that this year's performance is expected to recover significantly and the R & D pipeline continues to advance, we expect the company's performance from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 1.28/14.7/2 billion respectively, corresponding to 44 / 38 / 28 times of PE respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the risk of intensified market competition; Product sales are less than expected; The risk of policy exceeding expectations.
