\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 94 Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) )
Performance review
On April 14, Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) released the annual report of 2021, which realized a revenue of 2.319 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 43.65%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 376 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 36.53%, and the deduction of non net profit was 353 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 36.54%. Revenue was in line with expectations, dragged down by the rise in the price of raw materials and other reasons, and the performance in the fourth quarter was temporarily under pressure. Excluding the impact of bad debt provision, 21q4 company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 117 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 2.39%.
Business analysis
On the revenue side, the company achieved excellent results during the double 11, with the cumulative sales of the whole network exceeding 410 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 56%, or the delivery of the company was delayed due to the excellent sales of E30 series and other new products, resulting in the delayed recognition of some double 11 revenue. If this part is excluded, the growth rate of Q4 revenue is expected to be higher. The company’s multi-channel sustained and steady development has contributed to high growth.
On the profit side, the gross profit margin of 21q4 was 43.0%, with a year-on-year increase of – 10.4pct. The impact of the change of accounting standards for the conversion of logistics expenses to costs on the gross profit margin of Q4 was about 2pct. Therefore, excluding the change, the gross profit margin of Q4 was about – 8pct year-on-year, which was mainly affected by the price rise of raw materials. 21q4 sales expense ratio was 21.32%, year-on-year -2.6pct. If the impact of changes in accounting standards is excluded, the sales expense ratio is basically the same year-on-year. The company’s Q4 management / R & D / financial expense ratio was – 1.3pct / – 0.3pct / + 0.3pct respectively year-on-year, and the company’s operating efficiency was improved. In addition, considering the high risk of overdue recovery of Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) part of the purchase amount, the company accrued 14.4 million yuan of bad debt provision. If the impact of bad debt provision is excluded, 21q4 company realized 117 million yuan of net profit attributable to the parent company, with a year-on-year rate of – 2.39%, 16.20% and – 3.4pct.
Profit forecast & investment suggestions
The penetration of the integrated stove industry has been continuously verified. The company is the first echelon of the industry. With the continuous high-volume growth of the subsequent integrated stoves and the gradual opening of the second growth curve of superimposed water washing, the income is expected to continue to increase, and the scale advantage is expected to promote the steady increase of profitability in the long run. We estimate that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.06 billion yuan, 4.05 billion yuan and 5.4 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 32.2%, 32.2% and 33.2% respectively. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 500 million yuan, 670 million yuan and 900 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 34.2%, 33.0% and 33.8% respectively, and EPS will be 1.24, 1.65 and 2.21 respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE from 2022 to 2024 will be 28.2x, 21.2x and 15.8x respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tips
The terminal consumption is weak, and the penetration rate is lower than expected; The risk of intensified industry competition; Risk of rising raw material prices; Risk of lifting the ban on restricted shares.
