\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 69 Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) )
Performance review
On April 14, 2022, the company announced that the revenue of 2022q1 was 3.374 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 561.88%, a month on month increase of + 31.25%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 762 million, a year-on-year increase of + 140277%, a month on month increase of + 36.88%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 756 million, a year-on-year increase of + 213620%, a month on month increase of + 37.52%, the gross profit margin was 34.78%, a month on month increase of + 17.38 PCT, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 23%, a month on month increase.
Business analysis
Lithium iron phosphate: 1) net profit per ton: the company's Q1 shipment is expected to be 33000 tons, and the net profit per ton is 22700 yuan, which is further improved month on month. Specific split: single ton manufacturing profit of 7925 yuan / ton + inventory income of 14775 yuan / ton. 2) Capacity: we expect that the nominal capacity of lithium iron phosphate cathode of the company in 22 years will be 330000 tons (German times and Defang Yiwei) will be put into operation in 22h2), and the annual effective capacity of equity in 22 years is expected to be 184000 tons. 3) Terminal application: we expect that energy storage accounts for more than 50% of the company's iron lithium cathode sales in 22 years. 4) Inventory: the company's inventory in Q1 in 22 years is 2.896 billion yuan, which is expected to support the company's annual performance in 22 years.
New cathode lithium salt: Qujing German 110000 ton phosphate cathode material base has been approved by the EIA. We expect it to be put into operation in Q4 in 22 years, which is expected to significantly increase the company's profit at that time. In addition, the company announced in January 22 that the 330000 ton new phosphate positive material project of Yunnan German side, a planning subsidiary, is steadily advancing.
Lithium replenishing agent: the company continues to add weight to the lithium replenishing agent industry chain, which is expected to obtain excess returns by virtue of its technology and card position advantages. According to the information such as patents disclosed by the company, it is speculated that the lithium supplement additive or lithium ferrite is the positive lithium supplement agent. We believe that the positive lithium replenishment agent will benefit from the large amount of silicon carbon negative electrode and energy storage battery. We expect that the 20000 ton lithium replenishment agent project of the company is expected to be put into operation in Q1 in 23 years when the proportion of lithium replenishment agent is about 3% - 4%.
Profit adjustment and investment suggestions
According to our latest forecast on the price and output of iron and lithium of the company in 22-23 years, we raised the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-23 years to 14.67 (+ 20%) and 1.984 (+ 248%) billion yuan. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be 3.243 billion yuan, and the EPS will be 16.44, 22.24 and 36.34 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 30 times PE in 2022, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk
The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Market competition intensifies risks; The risk of overcapacity in the industry; Risk of lifting the ban on restricted shares.
