\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 99 Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) )
The performance is in line with expectations. The company released its 2021 annual report, realizing an operating revenue of 2.607 billion yuan, an increase of 23.25% over the same period last year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 758 million yuan, an increase of 18.18% over the same period last year. The company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022. In a single quarter, it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 591 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 5%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 207 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.37%.
Key points supporting rating
The sales volume of all products increased. In terms of products, the company's carbon fiber and fabric sector achieved a revenue of 1.275 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%; The sales volume was 1832 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2%; The gross profit margin was 70.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1pcts. The annual average price of products in the sector increased by 10.4% year-on-year, but affected by the decline in the price of mass-produced and finalized carbon fiber products and the increase in the proportion of civil products business income, the average price of products decreased by 31.24% month on month in the second half of 2021. In 2021, the company's carbon beam business revenue was about 808 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%; The sales volume was about 8.985 million meters, with a year-on-year increase of 25.0%; The gross profit margin was 15.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5pcts. In 2021, the price of raw materials rose sharply, while the direct material cost of carbon beam business accounted for 90%, and the profitability of carbon beam business decreased. In 2021, the company's prepreg business revenue was about 359 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 51.9%; The sales volume was 7.535 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%; The gross profit margin was 28.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3pcts. Large orders of wind power prepreg made a great contribution to the performance of the sector.
The performance in the first quarter was slightly under pressure, and the implementation of Baotou project was imminent. Affected by the year-on-year decline in the price of finalized carbon fiber products, the impact of the epidemic on production, logistics and other factors, the company's performance in the first quarter fell slightly compared with the same period. In the first quarter of 2022, the company's carbon fiber (including fabric) business is expected to achieve revenue of 380 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 7%. The wind power carbon beam business is expected to achieve revenue of 140 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 2%. Due to the phased order closure of wind power prepreg with great contribution in the same period of last year, the prepreg business is expected to achieve revenue of 47.65 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of about 56%. The growth momentum of the company is still obvious in 2022. The capacity under construction of Baotou phase I is 4000 tons, which is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2022. The m55j grade fiber production capacity of 30 tons and the experimental line transformation t700g / t800h grade carbon fiber production line project have been steadily promoted. With the gradual launch of new production capacity, the price of carbon fiber for high-end civil products has risen steadily, and the company's performance is expected to achieve steady growth.
Estimate
With the continuous progress of domestic substitution of carbon fiber, the company's low-cost large tow carbon fiber project is gradually put into operation. It is expected that the EPS will be 1.79 yuan, 2.22 yuan and 2.51 yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024, and the corresponding PE will be 27.7 times, 22.3 times and 19.7 times respectively. Maintain buy rating.
Main risks of rating
The risk of performance fluctuation caused by the high proportion of military products sales; Risks in the development of new military products; Risk of product sales price fluctuation; Safety production management risk; Risk of epidemic impact
