\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 195 China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) )
Key investment points
Performance summary: in 2021], the company achieved an operating revenue of 5.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 510 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 510 million yuan after deduction, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%.
Comments: the company's investment income in associates and joint ventures in the past 21 years was 170 million yuan, and the main net profit (deducting the investment income in associates and joint ventures on the basis of deducting the non parent net profit) achieved 340 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.4%. The company's main business performance achieved rapid growth: 1) the chemical medicine business achieved revenue growth. In 21 years, the chemical medicine business achieved revenue of 1.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%, accounting for 23.8%, and the sales volume of chemical medicine was 11000 tons. Take one policy for each major customer, do a good job in personalized matching in many aspects, and enhance customer stickiness. 2) crude drugs and chemical drugs achieved an increase in gross profit margin, and the operating revenue of crude drugs was basically the same as that of 1.43 billion yuan. The group's breeding customers increased steadily, with a gross profit margin of 58.1% and a year-on-year increase of 5.5 percentage points. Chemical drugs benefited from the gradual high-end of products, and the unit price increased, with a gross profit margin of 31% and a year-on-year increase of 4.2 percentage points. In terms of capacity construction, the company's major three-level biosafety protection projects of Lanzhou new plant and Zhengzhou new plant have been closed, and the phase II project has been stepped up. In terms of marketing strategy, the company paid close attention to the leading and deeply cultivated terminals. During the reporting period, the direct sales revenue was 3.37 billion yuan, accounting for 63.5%.
The average profitability of the pig breeding industry shows a repair trend, and the demand for animal protection products is expected to increase. In the third quarter of 2021, the pig price rebounded after falling to the lowest point. At present, the pig price is about 12.2 yuan / kg, which is still in the bottom consolidation stage. However, the overall price is expected to pick up in the future, and the demand for animal protection will increase accordingly. The special feature of this cycle is that the emergence of African classical swine fever has widened the range of breeding costs, and the cost gap between different breeding subjects can reach 10 yuan / kg. We believe that the core influencing factor of the demand of the animal protection industry is the one-time impact of African swine fever, which has been transformed into the restoration of the profitability of breeding enterprises in the short term. With the structural adjustment of fertile sows, the proportion of high-quality sows increased, the dead Amoy rate decreased, the healthy litter rate, Psy and other indicators increased, and the overall pig breeding cost showed a marginal improvement trend. On the other hand, the development of African classical swine fever vaccine continues to advance. With the variation of classical swine fever virus, its toxicity gradually weakens and its infectivity increases. The subunit inactivated vaccine is weaker. Although the vaccine is less effective, it has higher safety, so it is more likely to be popularized. If it is successfully marketed in the future, the attention and growth of the industry will be further improved.
In the future, the company will gradually realize the two wheel drive of medicine and seedling, gradually release the new production capacity, continuously optimize the customer structure, and further improve the market share. In terms of vaccines, the policy of "first and last" will be steadily promoted. In 2025, the market vaccine of compulsory immunization against epidemic diseases will fully replace the vaccine collected by the government. The company has high market recognition of foot-and-mouth disease, and the proportion of its structure will continue to increase in the future. The core product Oubeijia is the bivalent inactivated vaccine of foot-and-mouth disease type O and type A, which has many advantages, such as wide antigen spectrum, international leading technology, international leading production process, high antigen purity, small side reactions and so on. The market feedback is good, In the future, with the continuous improvement of capacity utilization, the new capacity will be released after the construction of phase II project of Lanzhou new plant, and the sales volume will usher in growth. In addition, the penetration improvement of large single products drives the comprehensive layout of multiple products, including vaccines and combined vaccines for swine fever, pig ring, pseudorabies and other diseases, and the product combination improves the competitive advantage. Under the background of the implementation of the new version of GMP driven by the animal husbandry industry and the continuous upgrading of the pharmaceutical industry, the company has successfully started the implementation of the new version of GMP driven by the animal husbandry industry in combination with the upgrading of the pharmaceutical industry in Nanjing, Shengli biology has obtained the export certification of FDA, which indicates that the quality of the company's tylosin products is recognized by the world. In the future, macrolide pharmaceutical preparations will usher in the growth of production and marketing. The company and muyuan plan to invest a total of 120 million yuan to establish zhongmuyuan, which is mainly used for the production and operation of veterinary drugs and forms a deep binding with major customers. The cooperative products will expand from vaccines to all categories. The market share is expected to be further improved in the future and the long-term performance will be better.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.72 yuan, 0.92 yuan and 1.08 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE will be 15 / 12 / 10 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: capacity expansion is less than expected; The product sales were not as good as expected.
