\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 812 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) )
The company released the annual report of 2021, with significant performance growth; The company has a leading market share and positive capacity expansion. At the same time, it continues to strengthen the cost advantage and optimize the product structure; Maintain the overweight rating.
Key points supporting rating
In 2021, the profit increased significantly by 143.60% year-on-year: the company released the annual report of 2021, and the annual revenue was 7.982 billion yuan, an increase of 86.37% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 2.718 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 143.60%; Deduct non-profit of RMB 2.567 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 159.17%. The revenue of 2021q4 was 2.643 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 55.34% and a month on month increase of 35.89%; The profit was 962 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 103.81% and a month on month increase of 36.43%. The performance of the company’s annual report is in line with expectations.
Expected 2022q1 performance growth of over 100%: the company released 2022q1 performance forecast the day before yesterday, with an expected profit of 865950 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100.19% – 119.86%; Deduct 835920 million yuan of non-profit, with a year-on-year increase of 106.20% – 127.19%.
The cost advantage has been continuously strengthened, and the operating cash flow has continued to improve: in 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 49.86%, an increase of 7.23 percentage points year-on-year. The company is expected to maintain its cost advantage for a long time through equipment and process technology improvement, fine management and scale effect. In 2021, the company’s net operating cash flow inflow was 1.419 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34.45%, showing excellent profit quality.
Leading capacity layout and continuous optimization of product structure: in 2021, the company shipped more than 3 billion square meters of lithium diaphragm, and Shanghai Enjie, the main body of diaphragm business, realized a net profit of 2.452 billion yuan belonging to the listed company, with a year-on-year increase of 166.42%. At present, the diaphragm capacity of the company has reached 5 billion square meters. It is expected to reach about 7.5 billion square meters by the end of 2022, and the shipment volume is about 5 billion square meters. The company has built its first overseas lithium diaphragm production base in Hungary, and will form a localized supply capacity of 400 million square meters of wet diaphragm after it is put into operation. By expanding online coating capacity and increasing the proportion of overseas customers, the profitability of diaphragm business still has further room for improvement. The company actively distributes the production capacity of dry process diaphragm and aluminum-plastic film, continuously optimizes the product structure, and is expected to contribute to the marginal increment after the production capacity of relevant projects is released.
Valuation
Under the current share capital, combined with the company’s annual report and industry conditions, we adjusted the company’s predicted earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 to 5.56/7.93/10.47 yuan (the original diluted earnings per share forecast from 2022 to 2023 was 5.33/7.79 yuan), corresponding to a price earnings ratio of 34.5/24.2/18.3 times; Maintain the overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
The new energy vehicle industry policy did not meet expectations; The product strength of new energy vehicles does not meet expectations; The demand of the industrial chain does not meet the expectation; The price competition in the industrial chain exceeded expectations; The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
