\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 528 China Railway Hi-Tech Industry Corporation Limited(600528) )
Events
On April 14, the company released the main business data of the first quarter of 2022 and the announcement of signing / winning major contracts.
Key investment points
In the first quarter, the newly signed contract amount exceeded 12.2 billion yuan, a record high, and the new orders in the tunnel construction sector increased by 71% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2022, the newly signed contract amount of the company reached 12.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, accounting for about 4.8% of the company's revenue in 2021. It broke the 12 billion mark for the first time, reaching a new record.
By business type: the newly signed contract amount of special construction machinery and equipment business was 3.86 billion yuan, a significant increase of 78% year-on-year. Benefiting from the accelerated landing of downstream infrastructure projects and the expansion of new application fields such as pumped storage, the newly signed contract amount of the company's tunnel construction equipment business reached 3.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71%; Including the TBM sales contract for pumped storage power station with an amount of 73.89 million yuan and the shield sales contract with an amount of 69.6 million yuan, the company's market share in China in the field of shield machine / TMB has further increased.
The construction machinery business benefited from the improvement of downstream demand and the expansion of application scenarios. In 2022, the newly signed contract amount in Q1 reached 520 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 132%. This includes the contract for the sale of 1000 ton tunnel transportation equipment with an amount of 29.3 million yuan and the contract for the design and manufacture of 1700 ton beam erection crane with an amount of 28.98 million yuan.
New orders in the transportation sector decreased by 10% year-on-year, and China remained the main market in the first quarter affected by the epidemic
The newly signed contract amount of transportation equipment business reached 8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10%. Among them, the turnout business was affected by the lower than expected investment scale of China's railway construction and other factors. The amount of newly signed orders in Q1 in 2022 was 1.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15%.
The newly signed contract amount of steel structure business was 6.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, including the contract for steel beam and steel tower processing and manufacturing of railway engineering project with an amount of 820 million yuan and the contract for steel box girder manufacturing and supply of highway bridge project with an amount of 190 million yuan.
By Region: in the first quarter of 2022, the company's newly signed contracts in China reached 11.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%; Affected by the epidemic in overseas markets, the newly signed contract amount was 530 million yuan, a sharp year-on-year decrease of 48%.
The demand for subway construction equipment is growing steadily, and new application fields such as pumped storage bring incremental demand for shield machine / TBM
The downstream works of shield machine are mainly subway works, accounting for 70% - 80%. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the operating mileage of China's urban rail transit will increase by 3000 kilometers. It is expected that the demand for shield machines will increase by about 10% in the next three years.
It is estimated that the compound growth rate of the installed capacity of pumped storage during the 14th Five Year Plan period will reach 23%, and the cumulative demand for Pumped Storage TBM in the next 15 years will reach 45 billion yuan. As the application of TBM continues to expand to new fields such as pumped storage, railway highway tunnel (Sichuan Tibet Railway), municipal pipe gallery (urban underground parking lot), water conservancy and hydropower, energy coal mine and national defense special, the demand for TBM has broad prospects.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 313 / 365 / 428 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 15% / 16% / 17%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.1 billion / 2.47 billion / 2.92 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 13% / 18% / 18%, corresponding to 8 / 7 / 6 times of PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
1) the growth rate of infrastructure investment such as subway slows down; 2) The iteration of energy storage technology and the development of pumped energy storage are lower than expected
