\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 850 Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) )
The company predicts that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 in 2022 will be 168178 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 92% – 103% and a ring increase of 0.6% – 6.6%. The company predicts that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 in 2022 will be 168178 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 92% – 103% and a ring increase of 0.6% – 6.6%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 160170 million yuan, with an increase of 98% – 111% and a ring increase of 0% – 6.3%, which was in line with market expectations.
We expect Q1 revenue to be about 1.5 billion yuan and the profit level to be stable. We expect the company’s Q1 revenue to be 1.5 billion yuan, with a slight increase month on month and a significant increase of 94% year-on-year; The short-term epidemic affects logistics, and the output in April is still up month on month. Overall, we expect Q2 to increase by about 20% month on month. The peak season and the release of new production capacity in the second half of the year will further accelerate. We expect the annual revenue to be about 10 billion yuan, more than doubling year-on-year growth. In terms of profitability, the company’s Q1 net profit margin is expected to be 11-12%, unchanged month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 1-2pct. Considering the Q1 Spring Festival and the rise in the price of raw material aluminum, the company’s profitability is very strong. Subsequently, with the further release of new production capacity, the improvement of equipment production rate and the large volume of overseas customers, we expect the annual profitability to be further enhanced, with a net profit margin of about 12%.
The company’s production base follows the forward-looking layout of key customers. The overseas market and large cylindrical structural parts are new highlights, with sustained high growth. Following the global and Chinese major battery customers, the company has the leading advantages in equipment, raw materials and yield. It has a very obvious advantage in the medium and high-end market. In the second half of the year, the three major bases in Europe began to gradually increase production, and the production capacity of Huizhou phase III, Yibin base, Ningde phase II and Liyang phase II has been put into operation successively. By the end of 20222q1, the company’s output value is planned to be nearly 20 billion yuan, far ahead of its competitors, At the same time, large cylindrical structural parts have been designated by major customers at home and abroad and will become a new growth point next year. It is worth looking forward to the sustained high growth this year in the future
Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain the previous forecast of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.23/2.01/2.9 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 128% / 63% / 45%, and the corresponding PE is 29x / 18x / 12x. We give 45xpe in 2022, the target price is RMB 238.1, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected, and the competition intensifies.
