\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 129 Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) )
Event overview
The company disclosed the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022, of which the operating revenue is RMB 1.28 billion ~ 1380 million, and the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be RMB 1260 million ~ 1360 million.
Analysis and judgment:
Photovoltaic + semiconductor resonance, performance continues to improve
In the first quarter of 2022, the company is expected to realize an operating revenue of RMB 1.28 billion ~ 1380 million, with a year-on-year increase of 71.52% ~ 84.92%. It is expected to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of RMB 1260 million ~ 1360 million, with a year-on-year increase of 132.71% ~ 151.18%. It mainly benefits from both PV and semiconductor. In PV, the company’s Yinchuan phase VI production capacity is gradually released, the advanced production capacity of 210 products is accelerated, the product structure is optimized and upgraded, the proportion of shipments is continuously increased, the comprehensive cost is continuously reduced, the production and sales of advanced production capacity is maximized, the market scale advantage of strategic products is guaranteed, and the overall profit is improved. At the same time, through continuous technical improvement and process progress, the production cost is effectively reduced and the yield is improved; In terms of semiconductors, shipments of 8-12 inch polished wafers and epitaxial wafers accelerated, improved product supply capacity, and the scale of production and sales increased significantly year-on-year; Dual path development of characteristic process + advanced manufacturing process, promote technology research and development and customer certification, accelerate the upgrading of product dimension and accelerate the layout of new products.
Accelerate the demonstration of semiconductor materials business and continue to be optimistic about the company’s semiconductor business
According to semi data, the global semiconductor silicon wafer shipment area is expected to reach 14 billion square inches in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. In the next three years, the semiconductor silicon wafer shipment is expected to continue to reach a new high year by year. At present, the global semiconductor silicon wafer is mainly monopolized by foreign companies. In particular, the localization rate of 12 inch silicon wafer is low, and there is a huge space for domestic substitution. The company’s semiconductor materials business accelerated technology research and development and customer certification, rapid product upgrading and accelerated the layout of new products. While accelerating the capacity expansion of Jiangsu large silicon wafer project, the company plans to start the production expansion of Tianjin factory. At present, the second phase of the 8-12 inch large silicon wafer project is started ahead of schedule to accelerate capacity expansion. The quality and consistency of products have been continuously improved, the consumption of raw materials and auxiliary materials has been effectively improved, and the operation cost of the factory has been continuously reduced. At the same time, we have cooperated with upstream and downstream customers to establish a flexible cooperation mode, reduce transaction costs and improve the competitiveness of ourselves and customers.
Investment advice
Under the new system and mechanism, the company has improved its operation quality and efficiency, continuously improved its competitiveness, and achieved high performance in the future. We maintain the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the annual revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 41.025 billion yuan, 55.245 billion yuan and 66.913 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.019 billion yuan, 5.216 billion yuan and 6.310 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 1.24 yuan, 1.61 yuan and 1.95 yuan respectively, corresponding to the closing price of 43.15 yuan / share on April 14, 2022, and the PE will be 35x, 27x and 27x respectively 22x, maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The demand of semiconductor market is not as expected, the competition in semiconductor silicon wafer industry is intensified, systemic risks, etc.
