\u3000\u3 Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) 073 Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) )
We firmly recommend the post epidemic travel industry chain before the Spring Festival. Although the process is tortuous, the road ahead is bright. Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) is the elastic target of key recommendation. The target price of 71.3 yuan / share was given in the report released on January 28. Up to now, the breakthrough and forward-looking recommendation judgment have been verified. At the current time point, based on the company's short-term business resilience and the high growth potential to accelerate the opening of stores in the future (Junting direct sales + Junlan Commission Management + Junting joining trio), we raised the company's target price to 99.6 yuan / share. Looking forward to the growth of Junting and Junlan in the next 3-5 years, we believe that there is still room for the rise of Junting's share price:
1. Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) expansion: on the one hand, we should deeply cultivate the Yangtze River Delta to build the continuous encryption under the basic sector, and on the other hand, we should look at the matrix expansion of different regions. At present, we have explored and formed the short board mode of resisting rent through brand upward breakthrough. As of 21q3, Junting has 16 Direct stores (10 in Zhejiang, 4 in Shanghai, 1 in Anhui and 1 in Hainan), and revpar287 yuan (adr427 yuan, occ67.2%) has been normalized in 19 years. In March 22, the flagship store pagoda Junting in the southwest opened. On April 12, Ctrip showed that the house price was 730 yuan +, which was equivalent to the house price level of high-end hotels within 2km around (Ritz Carlton 758 yuan, Shangri La 661 yuan, jw599 yuan and joy 496 yuan). The rise of Chinese hotel brand power + the successful breakthrough of house price under the characteristic oriental culture of Junting. In the future, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen regions are expected to replicate this model for expansion. From the perspective of store opening rhythm, as of the end of the 21st year, the company's Junting is a direct + entrusted hotel with nearly 50 hotels, including 16 direct hotels,. After listing, the popularity improvement is expected to accelerate. We expect that Junting department will add 30-40 new stores every year in the future, and it is expected to increase to 114 / 193 by 23 / 25. We expect that 2 Direct stores will be opened every year (3-5 stores are planned to be opened every year, which may be slightly slowed down by the impact of the epidemic), and it is expected to increase to 20 / 24 by 23 / 25.
In terms of single store contribution, we expect that the revenue contribution of mature Direct stores is about 23 million, the contribution performance of stores / including headquarters is about 6.83/4.78 million respectively, and the corresponding profit margin is 30% / 21% respectively; The income of a single store under entrusted management is 500000, the contribution performance of stores / including headquarters is about 400000 / 300000, and the corresponding profit margin is 80% / 60% respectively. Overall, the revenue of Junting department is expected to reach 480 / 610 million yuan and the performance is expected to reach 110 / 160 million yuan in 23 / 25 years.
2. Junlan hotel occupies about 180 brands in the early stage, and has occupied the resources of high-quality resort circle first. After the epidemic, the charge of a single store has doubled and continued to open + it is expected to accelerate the signing and bring high elastic space. According to the official wechat of Junlan, there are many Junlan rooms in Qingming holiday (Guangzhou Huangpu Junlan, Beijing Minmetals Junlan, Anji Laozhuang mountain resort, Qiandao Lake Meidiya Junlan, etc.). In the early stage, the epidemic suppresses the travel demand. The construction cycle of the supply side is generally 2-3 years longer than that of commercial hotels, and high-quality destinations highlight the scarcity of resources. The epidemic situation may subside in the future. With the smooth population flow (even in the regional dimension), the demand for urban vacation and suburban vacation is rising, and the management fee under high RevPAR is expected to double.
From the perspective of store opening rhythm, as of the end of 21, the company's Junlan hotel had 57 charges and 21 new ones in that year. With the improvement of the prosperity of resort hotels, the opening of hotels is expected to accelerate. We expect to open 30-40 new hotels every year in the future, increase to 122 / 192 in 23 / 25 years, and nearly 300 in 23 / 25 years.
From the perspective of single store contribution, Junlan charges based on basic management + GOP Commission, with great performance flexibility. The average basic management fee of a single store was 627000 yuan in the 19 years before the epidemic, and only 500000 yuan in the 20 / 21 years. We expect that the comprehensive management fee (Basic + reward) of a single store under normalization is expected to exceed one million. Overall, Junlan's income is expected to reach 140 / 220 million yuan in 23 / 25 years, its performance is expected to reach 70 / 130 million yuan, and its net profit attributable to its parent is expected to reach 60 / 110 million yuan (holding 79%).
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we believe that the integrated development of Junting and Junlan has opened the path of group expansion. The listing of the company has boosted the brand power, light the asset volume, significantly accelerated and has potential extension expansion expectations. It is expected to point to China's first high-end hotel group in the future. We expect that the company's revenue will reach 620 / 830 million yuan and its performance will reach 170 / 270 million yuan in 23 / 25 years. Give a valuation of 30 times the 25-year performance, the corresponding target market value is 8 billion yuan, the corresponding target price is 99.6 yuan / share, and maintain the buy rating.
Risk warning: the expansion of entrusted management is less than expected; The effect of acquisition and integration is less than expected; The operation of the target company fails to meet expectations; Impairment risk of goodwill and intangible assets, etc.
