\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 99 Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021 and achieved an operating revenue of 2.607 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.25%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 758 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.18%. The net profit deducted from non parent company was 713 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25.95%.
Revenue continued to grow rapidly, and the pressure on gross profit margin affected the growth of net profit. Benefiting from the growth of industrial demand, the company achieved a revenue of 2.607 billion yuan (yoy+23.3%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 758million yuan (yoy+18.2%), which was lower than the growth of revenue, mainly because the decline in the price of mass-produced and finalized carbon fiber products led to a decline in the gross profit margin.
1) in terms of business, the carbon fiber and fabric business is affected by the price reduction of mass production and finalized carbon fiber, the price rise of civil products and the increase of product varieties. The revenue is 1.275 billion yuan (YoY + 18.3%), accounting for 48.9% (yoy-2.0pct); Under the situation of sharp rise in the price of carbon fiber and resin as the main raw materials and tight supply, the revenue of wind power carbon beam is 808 million yuan (YoY + 12.6%), accounting for 31% (yoy-2.9pct); The prepreg company has successfully developed carbon fiber semi prepreg suitable for wind power blade manufacturing and achieved mass production. In 21 years, the revenue is 359 million yuan (YoY + 51.9%), accounting for 13.8% (YoY + 2.3pct).
2) quarterly, the company’s revenue is not seasonal. The revenue of 21q4 is 645 million yuan (YoY + 25.8%, qoq-5.0%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company of Q4 is 140 million yuan (YoY + 19.5%, qoq-23.9%). In addition, according to the company’s Q1 performance forecast in 2022, due to the year-on-year decline in the price of finalized carbon fiber products supplied in bulk and the impact of the epidemic on production and product delivery, the company’s Q1 revenue in 22 years was about 591 million yuan (yoy-5%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 207 million yuan (yoy-5%). Among them, the revenue of carbon fiber and fabric business was 384 million yuan (YoY + 7%), the revenue of wind power carbon beam business was 141 million yuan (YoY + 2%), and the revenue of prepreg business was 48 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 56%, due to the end of phased orders of wind power prepreg with great contribution in the same period of last year.
Affected by external factors, the gross profit margin is significantly under pressure. The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin in 2021 was 44.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4pct. Among them, the gross profit margin of carbon fiber business was 70.1%, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.2pct, which was mainly affected by the decline in the price of mass produced and finalized carbon fiber and the increase in the contribution proportion of civil products business; Due to the rise of upstream raw materials, the comprehensive annual gross profit margin of carbon beam was 15.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6pct and an increase of 3.7pct compared with 21h1; Due to the optimization of product structure, the proportion of high value-added business increased, and the gross profit margin of prepreg business was relatively stable, increasing by 0.2pct to 28.2% over the previous year.
The company has sufficient orders on hand and stable expansion of production capacity. The company received a large order of 2.1 billion yuan in December of 21, and the execution cycle is 20222024h1, accounting for 80.5% of the total revenue in 21 years. The orders on hand are sufficient and the sustainable development can be expected. The company’s inventory of raw materials and products in process increased by 43.2% and 75.3% respectively compared with the beginning of the period. The increase of raw materials represents the company’s response to possible price changes or shortages of raw materials in the future. In terms of capacity, the company’s carbon fiber design capacity is 2655 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 78.4%. The capacity under construction includes 5030 tons of Inner Mongolia Guangwei project, which is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2022; At present, the design capacity of carbon beam is 10.2 million meters, and 1.7 million meters of capacity under construction will be put into operation in 2022; The designed capacity of prepreg is 13.75 million square meters, and the capacity of 850000 square meters under construction has been completed and put into operation after acceptance. We believe that from 2022, the company’s production capacity will accelerate the climb to cope with the rapid growth of downstream demand.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 921 million yuan, 1.168 billion yuan and 1.483 billion yuan, EPS will be 178 million yuan, 2.25 million yuan and 2.86 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 28x, 22x and 17x. The valuation of comparable companies has advantages and maintains the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: there is a great risk of price rise of upstream raw materials and price fluctuation of finalized carbon fiber.
