\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 126 Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) )
Core view:
The investment event company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 7.816 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.60%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 31.47%; The net profit deducted from non return to parent was 207 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 20.15%; The basic EPS was 0.28 yuan / share, a year-on-year increase of - 31.71%; The net operating cash flow was 374 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 17.87%.
Our analysis and judgment (I) focus on the effectiveness of new energy strategy and the continuous development of thermal management products. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 7.816 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 23.60%, and in 21q4, a revenue of RMB 1.984 billion, a month on month increase of + 9.30% / + 11.65% respectively. The company's development strategy of focusing on new energy products has achieved obvious results. In 2021, the revenue of heat exchanger business increased by 28.31% year-on-year, and the proportion of revenue increased to 80.39%, which is the main driving force contributing to revenue growth. The company has gradually become the supplier with the richest variety of new energy vehicle thermal management products in the world. Its products are widely recognized and its main customers are widely distributed, including major international engine and vehicle manufacturers such as BMW, Daimler, Audi and Ferrari, as well as excellent independent brands such as Geely, GAC, great wall, Chang'an and SAIC. Its customer base is stable and good, and is expected to continue to benefit from the development of new energy vehicles.
(II) the resonance of many factors such as the rise of material price leads to the rise of cost, and the gross profit margin is under pressure. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 31.47%; Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 in a single quarter was 05 million yuan, with a year-on-month ratio of - 89.07% / - 88.47% respectively, and the decline in a single quarter was expanded. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company's sales was 20.37%, with a year-on-year increase of -3.55 PCT, of which the gross profit margin of the main heat exchanger business and tail gas treatment business were 19.69% / 16.93% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -3.81 PCT / - 6.02 PCT respectively. The gross profit margin was under short-term pressure, mainly due to the shortage of chips in the automotive industry, the rise in the price of bulk materials, the rise in export freight and other factors, and the comprehensive cost increased. In 2021, the company's period expense ratio was 15.41%, of which the sales expense ratio was 4.37%, year-on-year -0.45pct, the management expense ratio was 5.80%, year-on-year -0.70pct, and the R & D expense ratio was 4.17%, year-on-year -0.08pct. The effect of quality improvement and cost reduction was good.
(III) orderly expansion of production capacity to help the continuous growth of new energy projects. In 2021, the company publicly issued convertible bonds to raise 700 million yuan, most of which were invested in the construction of new energy heat management capacity, including new energy passenger vehicle heat pump air conditioning system project and new energy commercial vehicle heat management system project. Among them, the market demand of heat pump project is in an explosive period, and the company has obtained a number of mass production orders from new energy customers. It is expected that more orders will be obtained in the future, providing strong support for the smooth production of the project. In 2022, the company's revenue guidance range is 8.8 billion yuan to 9.2 billion yuan, of which the revenue of new energy products accounts for more than 25%. The improvement of high profit product structure helps to support the gross profit margin. The company expects the annual sales net profit margin to increase by 1-2 percentage points year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 323 / 418 / 527 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 46.59% / 29.43% / 26.14%, corresponding EPS of RMB 0.41/0.53/0.67/share and PE of 21x / 16 / 13X respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: 1. The risk that the rise in the price of raw materials will have an adverse impact on the company's performance; 2. The risk that the customer's order is less than expected; 3. Risk of adverse impact of covid-19 epidemic on automobile industry chain.
