\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 025 Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) )
Core view
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021, and the company achieved a revenue of 5.038 billion yuan (+ 19.43%) in the 21st year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 487 million yuan (+ 12.37%). Q4's single quarter revenue was 1.365 billion (+ 12.26%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 94 million yuan (- 25.34%).
The performance was basically in line with expectations, and the gross profit margin decreased by 1.79 PCT in 21 years. In 21, the company's revenue increased by 19.43% year-on-year, the profit growth rate was lower than the revenue growth rate, and the net sales interest rate fell by -0.86pct to 11.21%. Due to the rise of raw materials and other reasons, the company's gross profit margin decreased to 32.62% (- 1.79pct). The gross profit margin of Q4 in a single quarter was 28.93%, significantly lower than that in the first three quarters, or due to the decrease in the proportion of military products in the recognized revenue. During the period, the expense rate decreased to 19.91% (-1.17pct). It is expected that during the "14th five year plan" period, with the expansion of revenue scale, the expense rate is expected to continue to decrease.
Inventory + 59% year-on-year indicates full orders, fixed assets + 60% year-on-year capacity continues to expand, and cash flow improves significantly. The ending inventory was 994 million yuan (+ 58.97%), and the company's military business mainly adopts the mode of setting production by sales. The increase of inventory means good downstream demand and great potential for future revenue growth. The fixed assets at the end of the period were 992 million yuan (+ 60.33%), indicating the smooth progress of the company's fund-raising projects and the continuous expansion of production capacity, which laid a foundation for the follow-up to better meet the needs of the defense market. In the 21st year, the net cash flow from operating activities of the company was 833 million yuan (+ 113799%), which was significantly improved due to: 1) the rapid growth of main orders and revenue; 2) Take effective measures to strengthen the recovery of payment for goods, and the recovery performance of payment for goods is better than that of last year; 3) Advances received from customers increased year-on-year.
High prosperity of military products + domestic substitution of civil products provide profit increment, and the growth center of the company is expected to move up. Military products: the prosperity of military industry and national defense informatization has been further improved, especially the large demand for expendable equipment such as missiles. As the leader of military products connector, the company covers all sub fields, has a high market share in the field of aerospace and missiles, and fully benefits from the background of informatization construction + actual combat drill. Civil products: in the medium and long term, the consumption of 5g construction connectors increases + the import substitution of medium and high-end products. The company has a large amount of new products and high added value, further expanding the volume of revenue and profit. The company has successfully issued fixed increase and raised investment projects to expand the production capacity of military and civilian products, break the production capacity bottleneck, and better meet the demand for military and civilian products during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The growth rate of revenue and profit is expected to reach a new level.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
According to the annual report, reduce the revenue and gross profit margin, adjust the EPS of 22-23 years to 1.48 and 2.04 yuan (formerly 1.81 and 2.33 yuan), and add 24-year EPS 2.00 yuan 74 yuan, with reference to the 22-year average 41 times valuation of comparable companies, the target price was given 60.68 yuan and the buy rating was maintained.
Risk tips
The confirmation progress of military orders and revenue is less than expected; Capacity expansion was less than expected
