\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 539 Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) )
Core conclusion
Event: 1) the company released its 2021 annual report, and achieved an operating revenue of 14.898 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 62.74%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.232 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 147.06%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit was 1.145 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 165.38%. In the fourth quarter alone, the revenue was RMB 4.806 billion, a year-on-year increase of +104.48%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 451 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 252.31%, and the performance achieved high growth. 2) The company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter of 2022 will be 450480 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 149.15% - 165.76%, and the net profit after deduction will be 436466 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 121.93% - 137.20%, with a basic earnings per share of 0.45-0.48 yuan / share.
The company has obvious advantages in industrial chain integration. At present, the upstream of the company has 181 million tons of proved phosphate rock reserves (under the promotion of exploration to mining) and 250 million tons of salt ore reserves. In terms of supporting facilities, it has a double ton capacity of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of soda + ammonium chloride, 100000 tons of sodium nitrate and sodium nitrite, 60000 tons of yellow phosphorus, 15000 tons of potassium dihydrogen phosphate, 35000 tons of sodium tripolyphosphate and 300000 tons of lime. In terms of compound fertilizer, the company has a production capacity of 5.2 million tons. The upstream of the company extends to the resource end; Improve the supporting facilities of the midstream and layout the whole industrial chain; The downstream continues to expand production and extend, and fully realize the advantages of industrial chain integration while further improving the market share. High future capital expenditure. In 2021, the company's capital expenditure was 553 million yuan. The company's cogeneration project and Jingzhou 2 200000 ton new slow-release fertilizer project were put into operation during the reporting period. In addition, the company has successively started the construction of new projects. At present, the 800000 tons of full shotcrete new slow-release compound fertilizer project in Songzi, Hubei Province has been started, and it is equipped with 300000 tons of sulfur refined sand for acid production, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of building gypsum, 4000 cubic meters of ammonia station and relevant public works; At present, iron phosphate related projects are being prepared. It is expected that 350000 tons of iron phosphate and supporting projects in Songzi, Hubei will be completed and put into operation in 2023.
Investment suggestion: we raise the company's profit expectation. It is expected that the company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.549/19.06/2.480 billion from 2022 to 2024, corresponding to the current PE of 9.5x/7.8x/6.0x respectively. We are optimistic about the competitive advantage and long-term performance growth momentum of the company as the industry leader, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the construction progress of the project is less than expected; Policy changes and weakening of environmental protection governance Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and price fluctuation of raw materials.
