\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 459 Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) )
The company issued 2021 performance express and 2022q1 performance forecast, in which Q1 profitability exceeded market expectations. The company’s integrated capacity expansion is expected to improve its share and profitability; Raise the rating to buy.
Key points supporting rating
The performance of the express report in 2021 increased by 35%: the company released the performance express report in 2021. In the preliminary accounting, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 2.039 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.31%, deducting 1.847 billion yuan of non-profit, a year-on-year increase of 35.71%. According to the calculation of performance express data, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 726 million yuan in 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of 237.54% and a month on month increase of 21.24%; Deduct 770 million yuan of non-profit, with a year-on-year increase of 358.78% and a month on month increase of 43.51%. The company’s express performance is in line with expectations.
2022q1 profit is expected to increase by 346% – 397%, which is in line with the expectation: the company also released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022. In the first quarter, it is expected to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of RMB 700780 million, with a year-on-year increase of 346.32% – 397.33%; Deduct non net profit of 650730 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 995.73% – 113059%. The performance forecast of the company’s first quarterly report is in line with market expectations.
In 2021, component shipments grew rapidly, and 2022q1 single watt profit exceeded expectations: in 2021, the company gave full play to its global marketing service network and brand advantages, further strengthened market development, and battery component shipments increased rapidly. We expect the annual component shipments of the company to be about 24gw, with a year-on-year increase of 52.48%. We expect the 2022q1 component shipment of the company to exceed 6.5gw. According to the forecast performance range, the profit of the integrated unit may exceed 0.1 yuan / W, and the profit of a single watt exceeds the market expectation, reflecting the excellent profit toughness of the integrated layout of front-line component leading enterprises.
Continuous expansion of integrated capacity: Recently, the company announced that it plans to expand the integrated capacity and invest in Vietnam’s 2.5gw crystal drawing and slicing project, Ningjin 1.3gw high-efficiency battery project, Yiwu 10GW module auxiliary material supporting project and Tuquan 200MW photovoltaic energy storage and power generation project. In addition, the company plans to build a manufacturing base and new energy power station project with a scale of no less than 10GW high-efficiency Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) batteries and 5GW components in Qujing, Yunnan Province. With the continuous expansion of integrated production capacity, the company is expected to further improve its market share and integrated profitability.
Valuation
In combination with the company’s profitability and Industry Supply and demand, we adjusted the company’s predicted earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 to 1.27/2.64/3.42 yuan (the original predicted diluted earnings per share was 1.21/2.57/3.27 yuan), corresponding to a price earnings ratio of 57.6/27.8/21.5 times; Raise the rating to buy.
Main risks of rating
Component price competition exceeds expectations; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; Risk of overseas trade barriers; Photovoltaic policy does not meet expectations; New technology iteration risk; The impact of covid-19 epidemic exceeded expectations.
