\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 459 Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) )
Key investment points
Event: the company’s 2021 performance express and 2022 quarterly performance forecast show that in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 41.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 60%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35%, which is in line with market expectations; Among them, 2021q4 achieved a revenue of 15.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 66% and a month on month increase of + 54%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 730 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 238% and a month on month increase of + 21%. In 2022q1, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 700780 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 346 ~ + 397% and a month-on-month increase of – 3.71% ~ + 7.29%, slightly exceeding the market expectation.
High speed growth of shipments and profits in 2021: we expect that the company’s component shipments in 2021 will be about 24gw, with an increase of 61%, of which about 8GW will be shipped in 2021q4, with an increase of 35% and a ring increase of 31%. We estimate that components contribute 700730 million yuan of profit. Under the background of the sharp rise in silicon material price, the profit is relatively strong and the ring ratio has increased slightly, mainly due to the continuous increase of the proportion of large-size products to about 60% and the proportion of high-profit overseas markets to about 65%.
2022q1 component single watt profit exceeded market expectations, and the annual performance was highly deterministic: we expect 2022q1 company’s component shipments to be 6.5gw +, an increase of 50% at the same time, and the single watt profit increased significantly month on month, exceeding market expectations. The main reasons are: 1) 2022q1 silicon industry released new capacity, and the price decreased compared with 2021q4; 2) The integration rate has been improved. By the end of 2021, the company will form 80% self supply of silicon chip batteries; 3) The company’s new production capacity is put into operation to reduce production costs. 2022q2 component price increase + the company’s new capacity is gradually promoted, and we expect the profit per watt to continue to improve month on month. In 2022, the company plans to ship 40gw of components, an increase of 64% at the same time, with strong profit certainty.
The integrated production capacity continued to be built, and the development volume of power stations increased in the second half of the year: by the end of 2021, the production capacity of silicon wafers, batteries and components of the company will be 30, 30 and 40gw. In 2022, the company plans to expand the production of 10GW respectively, including 3.5gW of perc in Vietnam and 6.5gw of TOPCON in China, and gradually start mass production of new technologies. In terms of power station business, the company’s 2022q1 is about 300MW in the flashlight station, and the power station business will continue to promote in the second half of the year, contributing to increased performance.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the implementation of the company’s new production capacity and the improvement of the integration rate, which has led to the cost reduction exceeding the market expectation, we raised the company’s performance. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 2 / 45 / 6.1 billion in 2021 / 2022 / 2023, the previous value will be RMB 2 / 40 / 5.2 billion, with a simultaneous increase of 35% / 122% / 36%, and the corresponding PE will be 63 / 28 / 21 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the policy is less than expected and the competition is intensified.
